Are you a die-hard MLS fan or a betting sharp who wants to know how to make sense of goalkeeper performances? That's a great move.
Of course, there are the shots they stop, the passes they make, the goals they allow, and so on, that you may want to look at. But there's more beyond these metrics.
This guide is going to show you how to analyze goalkeeper performances like a pro.
Saves vs. Shots on Target (Sv%)
This stat shows how often a goalkeeper stops shots aimed directly at the goal. Here's how to use it:
Look for Sv% Above 70%
Seventy percent is a tall order, given that the record for the highest save percentage in an MLS career is 76%, set by Matt Pickens in 2007. Still, a higher one shows a goalie who consistently stops quality shots. [1]
Think Context
A goalie with a high Sv% facing a team with tons of shots might not be as impressive as one with a lower Sv% against a team with fewer, but high-quality chances.
Take this example: Team A's goalkeeper has an 80% Sv% but has faced 100 shots on target this season. Team B's goalkeeper has a 75% Sv% but has only faced 50 shots on target. While Team A's goalie seems better, they might play a more wide-open style, facing more (but potentially easier) shots.
For the gambler in you, combining a strong Sv% with other factors like MLS predictions for today can be a winning strategy. These predictions often consider a team's playing style and factors that might influence the number of shots a goalie faces.
By combining Sv% with these insights, you can make informed decisions and potentially increase the odds of winning your bets.
Goals Against Average (GAA)
Goals against average (GAA) tells you how many goals a goalkeeper allows, on average, per game. Aim for a GAA below 1.5. This suggests a top-tier goalkeeper who lets in very few goals. Also, consider the team's defense. A strong defense will naturally lower a GAA.
For example, star goalie Miller has a stellar 1.0 GAA, but his team struggles defensively. Backup Jones has a higher 2.0 GAA, but plays behind a much stronger backline. While Miller seems like the clear choice, Jones' GAA might be more a reflection of his team's defense.
Expected Goals (xG) vs. Goals Conceded (GC)
Based on factors like shot location, power, and type of play (counter-attack, free kick), xG predicts how many goals a goalkeeper "should" concede. You then compare this to their actual goals conceded (GC).
A goalkeeper with a lower GC than xG is exceeding expectations and stopping more goals than anticipated. This suggests a top performer.
However, keep in mind that xG is a complex stat. While a big positive difference is great, a small difference might still indicate a good goalie facing a tough schedule.
For example, Keeper Jones has a GC of 10 but an xG of 12 against him. This means he's stopped two more goals than expected. Miller, on the other hand, has a GC of eight but an xG of seven. While the latter performed well, his team might have faced slightly easier chances compared to Jones. So, even though Miller's GC seems lower, considering the context, Jones's performance might be even more impressive.
Set-Piece Success
Set-pieces like free kicks and corners are a goldmine for goals in MLS. Here's where a goalkeeper's confidence, positioning, and ability to command their area and make key saves becomes crucial. Look for stats like:
Punches
How often does the goalkeeper confidently punch the ball clear from danger zones?
Claims
These focus on the goalkeeper's ability to securely catch incoming crosses.
Saves from Set-Pieces
These directly tell you how effective they are at stopping free kicks and corner attempts.
Distribution
This refers to the keeper's ability to play the ball out of the back with their feet, either for short passes or launching attacks. With data showing that around 65% of a goalkeeper's actions on a pitch are offensive and not defensive, distribution counts big time. [2]
Here's why:
Quick Starts
Great distribution can jumpstart attacks by bypassing the midfield and finding attackers early.
Playing Out of Pressure
Top teams like to build from the back. A goalkeeper with poor distribution can get them stuck under pressure.
How to Analyze Distribution
Watch how often keepers attempt short passes vs. long balls. A good mix is ideal.
See how accurate their passing is. Are they consistently finding teammates or giving the ball away?
Look for their kicking range. Can they launch long balls for counter-attacks or switch play?
Experts agree that nailing distribution, passes, and the ability to hold the ball can be the difference between the team having a good run or not. It's definitely something worth looking into. [3]
In Closing
These are the ins and outs of goal-keeping stats to look at. But keep in mind that while they're powerful tools, they don't tell the whole story.
To get the full picture, tune into some MLS games. Watch how goalkeepers handle pressure, react to unexpected plays, and command their area. This "eye test" will give you great insights that the numbers might miss.
Sources
1. "Highest percentage of saves in a Major League Soccer career by a goalkeeper", Source: https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/87491-highest-percentage-of-saves-in-a-major-league-soccer-career-by-a-goalkeeper
2. "Effect of goalkeepers’ offensive participation on team performance in the women Spanish La Liga: a multinomial logistic regression analysis ", Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10765429/
3. "Analysis of individual performance indicators of football goalkeeper", Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666506923000196