Making predictions about the lower leagues in football is always tricky. The stats that are available on the sport overall are much more detailed and widespread for pro leagues than for lower ones. Although betting on lower leagues is very much a thing, and therefore the task for betters is to figure out how to calculate the odds.
This is particularly the case in the US, where what we call soccer has only recently been rising in popularity. While it is picking up speed rapidly, we are still far from proliferating in terms of betting odds information. And this especially applies to the lower leagues. While UK football bookmakers may be very well established, this isn't yet the case across the pond. Although it may well be soon.
How the lower leagues work in the US
It may be instrumental to start out by looking at how the US system works. From the time young people start out in the sport, there are several divisions that they need to pass through before they reach the pro level. The divisions are as follows:
● City and recreational leagues
● State and regional leagues
● National Premier Soccer League
● USL League Two
● MLS Next Pro
● USL League One
● USL Championship
● Major League Soccer
The growth in soccer betting in the US
As mentioned above, betting on soccer has just recently started becoming a thing in the US. With an increase in the number of sponsorship deals with sportsbooks and the increasing popularity of the sport overall, people are starting to gain an interest in betting on soccer.
However, the majority of soccer betting that is taking place is focused on Major League Soccer. This is really the only realm in which there are established markets in the US. Minor league betting is growing at a lower rate, although it doesn’t have nearly the same level of media exposure and there are far fewer options. Of the popular betting formats in America, fantasy sports is big, and soccer is starting to make a presence there, as well.
What is needed to improve betting odds?
Given all of this, as of now it would be a major challenge to predict things like breakout goalkeepers in the lower leagues of US soccer using widely-available statistics forums like the ones that are popular in other parts of the world.
There are a couple of ways that fans and potential betters can address the information deficit:
● People can go the old-fashioned way and follow the career paths of individual goalkeepers on their own. This would involve doing detailed research into players’ personal histories, their success rates in different circumstances/against particular teams, etc.
● More tech-savvy fans can take it upon themselves to use analytical tools to their advantage. While popular websites might not yet have readily-available stats on particular players, people can use the technology that is out there to come up with their own probabilities.
It might not be long before this kind of information becomes more readily available, though. With the growing popularity of the sport in America - especially considering the precedent that has been set by the US women in winning the Women’s World Cup on three different occasions - more stats will almost surely start popping up in the US soon. And this will make it easier for people to place bets.
The UK in comparison
It is also worthwhile to think about a country that has a long history of fandom in the sport. In the UK, for example, local teams are an institutionalized part of daily life for many. It would be hard to find anyone in Liverpool or Manchester, for example, that couldn’t fill you in on what happened with their team last week.
For this reason, it is only natural that the betting world is much more firmly established, widespread, and sophisticated in nature. This was the case even before the rise of the Internet, and now online sites are just as big as offline venues. And the British betting world goes far beyond the pro leagues; many people have an interest in lower league football and know who the stars are to look out for. So determining things like breakout goalkeepers might not be that hard. With the likes of James Trafford and Sam Johnstone in the books, fans eagerly search for similar names.
It will happen
Again, it is only a matter of time before the soccer betting world picks up in the US. And once it does, there will be no stopping it. Given the statistical obsession that many Americans have with sports like baseball, we will surely find our groove with soccer odds, as well. It might not take much time at all.
