Top 100 American Goalkeepers (November 2013)

No player profile this month as I'm pushing to finish my GSAR before the Goalkeeper of the Year award goes to the wrong guy. And hopefully I'll get around to compiling a Steve Clark highlight video just in case he needs to find a new team next season. (Try to catch the finale this Saturday, 9-ish CT, not exactly sure when.) I tweaked my formula so a lot of college guys dropped out and lower tier veterans sneaked back in.  But of note, Bendik jumps to number 7 from 10 and Dykstra rises from 40 to 26. Also Blake Hylen (senior at San Diego St) represents the collegiate class at number 100. I'm still not completely sold on Hylen so I'm just penciling his name in for now. Also Patrick Wall hasn't been on great form lately so he slipped out of the 100. (He'll be back, I'm sure.)

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Here's a bit of a sneak preview for my 2013 MLS GSAR stat. I haven't finished it (as you'll see) but just in case anyone had any doubt it shouldn't be Rimando...

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(web page here)

As you can see, Rimando has a +10.75 goals saved above replacement. Second is Joe Bendik at +10.47 although Rimando has played four less games than Bendik.

"Okay but what are these stats based on? How is that number calculated." Uh, well I wasn't really thinking ahead to save my work (sorry all middle school math teachers) to show it to the public but coming from someone who has probably seen 100 times more highlight videos on these goalkeepers, please trust me. DO NOT VOTE JIMMY NIELSEN PLEASE. He is a fine enough goalkeeper but not deserving of this award. His GAA hides behind a great defense. DO NOT VOTE FOR TALLY HALL. It's great that he's been called into the national team but he has not performed as well as Rimando. Save percentage and goals allowed are not accurate assessments of a goalkeeper's ability.

If that does not convince you, here is American Soccer Analysis' expected goals allowed compared to real:

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(These stats are based off of ASA's shot location stats which you can see here.)

Portland tops the list with only giving up 33 goals while they were expected to give up 40.1 this year. But RSL has a lower dGA (difference in GA, colored column) than Portland because, I think, of the defense. Who is the Timbers' best defender? Michael Harrington? RSL has Borchers, McDonald, Wingert and Beltran. If you did vote for Ricketts over Rimando, eh, but okay. But please some of these other selections are not appropriate.

Look, SKC has a -0.2 dGA to RSL's 5.1. If you voted for Nielsen over Rimando you're essentially saying that the SKC defense was so miserable than they negated all of Nielsen's efforts and RSL's defense, on the other hand, was even better than SKC's and that Rimando had very little to do with it. DO NOT SAY THIS.

Whew. Okay, looking forward, I have interviews with Alan Mayer and Brad Stuver coming in the next week, a re-visiting of the 1989 win in Trinidad and Tobago to celebrate the 25-(minus one)-th anniversary, and an MLS end of the year write up of what goalkeepers should be going and coming. It should be an exciting month [for people who care about goalkeepers].

Guzan v. Panama - WCQ - 10.15.13

COCANCAF gonna CONCACAF. Howard departed after US's 2-0 over Jamaica. Guzan last played in the 4-2 loss to Belgium, coming on in the second half and conceding three goals, but did well against Mexico, holding them to a 0-0 tie at Azteca. So maybe this game would shed some light on how good this Brad Guzan guy really is. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmKpSZyeZzQ&w=420&h=315]

Starter: Brad Guzan Bench: Nick Rimando Not in 18: Sean Johnson

Johnson, who looks like a strong candidate for 2018 bench at this point, fills the void. Guzan comes out in the worst USMNT goalkeeper kit I have ever seen. All mustard yellow (including gloves and sock) and neon yellow cleats.

Four minutes in and Guzan collects a skyscrapper of a header then punts the ball down to a man cleverly disguised as a target striker but for whatever reason never wins a 50-50 ball.

Seventh minute and we get a really good example of the difference between Guzan and Howard.

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Kljestan takes care of the header as Guzan stays home. Howard goes for that ball every time. Who is right? Well in this occasion it's Howard. However, a goalkeeper who typically protects the line versus one that imitates a wrecking ball can be equally as effective, you just have to know how to play them appropriately. There's a lot of to consider (relationship with the defense, aerial strength of the opponents, type of service, etc.) before you just pick stay or go. (I went into length about this last time on Howard v. Jamaica.)

I don't know who has the longer throw but Guzan dishes out a nice javelin at 0:25.

(There are a lot of looped balls sent in and various no-shot skirmishes in front of the goal because that's what Panama is good at.)

Thirteen minute, Guzan gets a stressful encounter. A ball slices through the eighteen towards the corner flag. Guzan moves to it, then backs away (either because of the striker or slick bounce). The Panamian tracks it down, breakdances,

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...and sends a hard ball in front of the goalmouth. Guzan goes down to collect it (as he should) but the giraffe is too thin to box out his man. I don't know if Guzan does this on purpose or not but he kicks his right leg up in the air as if to block the goal when he realizes he's lost the angle on the play.

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If it's on purpose, smart play to try to avoid the chip; if not, well he still looks awful in yellow.

Guzan pops back up and Goodson proves to not be completely two-deminsional and stomachs the ball from getting on frame.

Alright who watched the first goal and thought "Wha-Guzan? What happened?" then proceeded to watch eight awful camera angles that didn't clarify anything? (Comment below about your experience.) Well I think I figured out some factors that contributed to Guzan's wiff. First, there is a nice mud patch that Guzan is trying to avoid.

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He ends up being a little out of position because of this. Secondly, his feet are a bit out of sorts. His pre-shot jump is too high and he does a weird circle motion with his right foot (again, maybe because of the mud pit) that slows him down and kills his reach. The shot is in the side netting but this is something Guzan can get if he gets his mechanics sorted out. (I slowed it down at 1:48 to get a good look.)

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A minute later he gets a similar shot on goal that Perez can't get off the ground.

Later, Guzan does his best flying squirrel impression two minutes before the half.

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Second half, Guzan comes out in a new kit. I bet Frank Borghi didn't have that luxury.

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Guzan and Castillo team up in the fifty-fourth minute to awkwardly bat a ball back into the center of the park. I think Guzan would have gotten this one on his second attempt. He misses with his foot but his swinging arm should arrive in time.

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Guzan makes his best save of the match at around the 66th minute. Just a deft southpaw but a needed one. The play goes somewhat unnoticed because it happens so fast but it's a six yard 1v1 blast and Guzan gets back up after the save just as fast as he made it. The slowed replay from behind the goal still makes the shot look fast.

I added a shot that goes wide from the seventy-ninth minute because I loved Guzan's footwork. Constantly on his toes. Great stuff.

83rd minute and Guzan gets thrown in a similar situation that Howard faced with the in-swinging cross from Jamaica. There's the original shot that's not going in the goal but if Guzan leaves it he runs the risk of a easy shot on goal from the backside. He stretches out but can only fingertip it back to the guy that both Beckerman and Goodson have combined to stop marking. (The old adage "If you get your fingertips on it you need to catch it" does not apply here or for goalies at all btw.) There's another crashing striker in the play that makes things even more difficult for Guzan.

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What could he have done differently? Officially, I'm going to say nothing because any critique is going to be so minute it's not actually helpful. But in the margin I'm making a note that you want to parry the ball out on a line and not pop it up, which Guzan kiiinda does (5:03).

Two bounces into the bread baskets later, Guzan gets a hockey assist to make it 3-2.

The biggest thing I got out of the game is not knowing who the better goalkeeper is between Howard or Guzan, it's deciphering the little things between the two. From first glance, they're both bald. They're both athletic. Both are good communicators. Both can kick and throw well and they are playing in the EPL. But they two have distinct playing styles. Howard is definitely more aggressive on crosses and 1v1s. Guzan likes to stay back. Howard's stance is a lot wider while Guzan's footwork is constant changing. Overall, I think the biggest difference in the game is that Guzan takes a calmer approach to the game and Howard is like that giant circular dog on a chain from Mario.

mkdd_chain_chomp

The good thing about this is that there's no obvious better goalkeeper at the moment so everyone still has something to discuss on BigSoccer.

two goals: -2

5' catch: +.02 7' no catch: -.01 7' catch: +.02 10' catch: +.01 13' positioning: +.10 17' catch: +.01 18' goal: +.82 19' catch: +.05 40' catch: +.01 66' save: +.17 83' save: +.06 83' goal: +1

Total: +.27

Howard v. Jamaica - WCQ - 10.11.13

USA IS NUMBER ONE!!!!! AHHHH!!!!1 NOW WE CAN WATCH GUZAN PLAY!!!!! I'm not as big of an antihowardite as some fans are but if you've been paying attention to the Howard v. Guzan goalkeeper battle this past year you are probably elbowing your buddy in the ribs "I wouldn't have a problem with Guzan starting in goal." Admittedly, Guzan has looked very sharp recently but Klinsmann brushed off any idea of Guzan topping Howard back in April. So while Howard is "undoubtedly" number one, if his play drops Klinsmann will characteristically look at the number two. I wouldn't be surprised with either goalkeeper starting in Brazil but the best goalkeeper needs to start next summer. If there's a tie, I'd lean towards the incumbent.

Jamaica+v+United+States+MzwRnmjQGJal

Howard's every non-boring touch from Friday:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDdPod0etWs&w=420&h=315]

Starter: Tim Howard Bench: Brad Guzan Not in 18: Nick Rimando

I naturally assumed that Guzan would start this game after defeating Mexico because there's not a huge drop off between the two goalies. However Klinsmann went with the familiar Howguzando (in that order).

More than most USMNT games that I can recall, Howard had to clear more backpasses early on. Jamaica was pressing high as they needed a win badly to stay in the running so getting an early goal would be huge for them. Howard didn't have any bad clearances and given the circumstances of the pressure and bounciness of the ball, he actually did quite well with them.

In the seventh minute Jamaica sends five Jamaicans and an in-swinger into the box from 30 yards out. Howard isn't too worried about the shot (as the shooter isn't hiding his hand) but he's played Jamaica enough to know that they can score off of set pieces, both directly and in-directly.

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The cross is sent in perfectly so that Howard has to deal with both a bounce that could go in the goal (if left untouched) and a redirected header that could slip past him. Here is a picture I pulled off of ESPN's site:

jamaicashot

Howard steps up to his six, looking to punch the ball before it reaches a Jamaican. The cross dips right over Cameron and his man (not sure who) then passes an on-rushing Darren Mattocks. Maybe the ball is going wide, maybe it's not but Howard drops his right leg to make a collapse save. Evans proves his brain's worth by being in the right place to clear the ball while Howard watches from eight inches off the ground. Typically I would critique Howard but instead let me explain why this is one of toughest plays in soccer to deal with as a goalkeeper. Today I introduce my alter ego Phil Bagels. Phil occasionally watches soccer and all his goalkeeper knowledge is based off of what he hears a commentator say about goalkeepers.

PB: Howard needs to come out and punch that ball away. BV: Well it's not that easy. The ball is sent in low, is bending towards the goal (which makes it easy to over run), annnd there are several people crashing the goal. If he's lucky enough to seep through the crowd, the punch still isn't guaranteed. If he does punch it cleanly then there's always the chance of a rebound from outside the 18 to lob over a goalkeeper who is now 8-10 yards from the goal. PB: Then he needs just stay on his line and make the save. BV: Also easier said than done! Like the picture I've shown you from ESPN, Howard has multiple shots to deal with from the cross and a variety of players that can head the ball. So he's looking at up to four different shots from different heights, angles, speeds all within a second. It's not like a normal shot where he only has to worry about one shooter. PB: But he's caught out in "no man's land!" (I learned that cool phrase from TV.) He doesn't need to be there. He needs to make a decision! BV: Yes that's ideal but he has an attacking mindset to punch the ball but realizes he can't get it so he gets in the best position he can and ultimately makes a save on the ball. PB: Well it's his job. He needs to do better. BV: What's your job? PB: I don't exist aaaaahhhh!!! *ceases to exist*

Getting caught six yards from goal with your feet on the ground isn't ideal for a goalkeeper but given the circumstances you'd be surprised how often that happens. Another thing that happens way way way too much that does not happen here is a goalkeeper with spaghetti legs who falls when he guesses for a shot. So ultimately Howard does an excellent job on this play. If you took 100 professional goalkeepers 80ish would fail on this occasion.

If I were to knock Howard for something, which I wouldn't do in this situation because it is extremely tough, I would point out how small he makes himself (first picture below) and (gosh I really do hate to say this) I think he could catch it. He reads the ball really well to know Mattocks isn't going to be in play but his left hand overtakes the shot-stopping responsibilities and deflects it when the two hands could cradle the ball. I know this opens a chance for a soft rebound but in this play a soft rebound is the same as a deflect back into the box. I wouldn't always recommend trying to make the save when you are more comfortable deflecting but either result in pushing the ball back into play.

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Still, if you watch the on-field highlights, it happens so fast. So all-in-all, Howard does well on this play. Was it perfect? No. Could it have been better? Eh. Perhaps. Could it have been worse? Most definitely. We shouldn't discredit the free kick as it truly was threatening and Howard does a lot better than other goalkeepers.

23rd minute, Howard races front post to gobble up another ball that (because nothing happens) doesn't look dangerous. But imagine if Howard stays on his line, the ball surprises him, bounces back out and..?? All of those realistic hypotheticals get tossed out with his command on the play. And wow who doesn't love a good Howard throw?

Not a full minute later, Howard makes his biggest mistake in the match. A shot from twenty yards out to a step of his right. He can either hop high to basket catch it or knock it straight down and pick up the bounce. The ball has some movement but you can see how low Howard has to scrunch his torso to push this ball out. (Couldn't find a better picture, sorry dudes.)

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In the video at the top (2:18), Howard patiently waits for the ball to trickle in the makes a clever bowl out right behind the Jamaican striker. I really enjoyed that.

38th minute, Howard is on top of a free kick that sneaks wide. If he it goes in then wow what a shot. Howard is screaming about something while holding up four fingers (I assume about the four men in the wall). The only thing I can think of is not jumping to head the ball out.

Stoppage time of the first half, soft hands hold a low shot that lead them into half time. You'll notice the twisting of Howard's body signaling this was not directly at him (or he just tripped for some reason). He stops a potential corner kick before the whistle there.

Ninety seconds into the first half Diskerud lazily bounces a ball back to Howard who punts it into the stratosphere with his weak foot. Not a great ball from Diskerud but Howard deals with it like a true professional.

You may have to watch 3:13 a couple times to catch it but a cleared ball finds Howard atop the 18. He picks it up and feigns a bowl to Jones in the middle of the field and skips it out to Besler on left. It's just a small thing but I love this. A smart opponent is always looking trends to take advantage of. Howard is one step ahead of them here.

52nd minute Howard collects a loose ball, rolls it out, only to face a 1v1 twenty seconds later. It's a sharp angle but it's not like Cameron is sprinting to cover the goalmouth so we need a save. Howard doesn't drop to the ground as soon as one might expect because Deshorn Brown still has the option of turning away from the goal and shoot with his left foot. Howard sees this, stays up, and then Brown fires it into Howard.

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After a replay of the ALL-STATE GOOD HANDS SAVE OF THE GAME Twellman compliments Howard with making a 93' save in a similar spot that he stopped the 1v1 half an hour ago. The shot a foot right of his head and bounces out and off of Besler's knees. Howard can technically pick this up as it's not an intentional pass nor does it come off of Besler's foot but just in case the referee is dying to help Jamaica score, he boots it from the box. Whistle blows and that's it!

It's easy to forget about a non-goal. Howard gets pressure early and had it not been for the ALL-STATE GOOD HANDS SAVE OF THE GAME we would have forgotten about it. Justin Bryant, a retired American goalkeeper, writes about how a mistake can really mess up the psyche of a goalkeeper.

Part of the problem for goalkeepers is that you have time to think about what you've done in a game during that same game. That's fine if you save a penalty or make an extraordinary save, but not so great when you drop a clanger. An outfield player won't have time to dwell on it. The game is swirling all around him and he has to stay involved. Thinking about a mistake during a game tends to commit it to memory; it's still in your head as you lie awake that night, and likely still there when the next game kicks off. I think this is where the elite goalkeepers differentiate themselves from the rest of us: they can truly forget mistakes and move on.

(The interview is great, btw. Bryant has a really good mind for the game and doesn't write puff statements.)

Howard could have easily been shaken from the play but stays composed for the full 90 and can sit comfortably on the flight back.

7' save: +.20 23' catch: +.04 24' save: +.05 24' no hold: -.10 45 + 1' catch: +.07 47' clear: +.01 52' catch: +.02 52' save: +.09 53' catch: +.05 68' catch: +.04 75' catch: +.07 90 + 3' save: +.07

GSAR: +.61

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