Ethan Horvath Scouting Report

Cover photo from Molde FK

The songs are from post-hardcore quintet mewithoutYou ("All Circles") and the midwest emo band Good Luck ("Significant Day") because we need a little more variety in our highlight videos than inane techno music.

The video includes some really good saves, some goals he couldn't do anything on, and some goals he definitely wasn't at his best. Most highlight videos include save after save but you can really tell just how good a goalkeeper is by the type of goals they concede. Not to mention, if you search "Ethan Horvath" on YouTube, the top results are people either talking about Horvath, Horvath getting scored on, or some kid playing piano. So it's intentionally not a highlight video. It's a survey what type of goalkeeper the twenty year old is.

Strengths

Enough can't be said about his technique and mechanics. He clearly has been sculpted as a goalkeeper and the results are someone who can play in Europa League as essentially a young sophomore in college. His stance is typically very even and his jumpset is impeccable. It is because of his sound mechanics that he can overcome his average athleticism to make an extended save. He is set in time with the shot and can move his body in the most optimal way to cover ground. Additionally, he's never trying to force a play. Instead, he is trusts his skills to time the play and react as necessary. So he'll sit back on his line waiting to make a save, like Brad Guzan often does. Even in 1v1 situations, he'll still play very passive. He won't rush out there trying to solve it with brashness. He's calm, playing high percentage areas like a specifically placed wall, instead of a flaming car from 2 Fast 2 Furious. 

It should also be noted that he shows the correct mindset and poise to be playing at such a high level, as much as you can tell watching video. He never looks out of depth or beaten; he looks like he really loves the competition and embraces it. There have been a number of young goalkeepers that come up early only to look overwhelmed, especially after giving up a poor goal. Horvath, on the other hand, looks similar whether he made a great save or slipped up on the play. And looking at his path taken to where he is today, it makes sense.

Weaknesses

The biggest weaknesses are clearly his lack of athleticism and reactions. He's not a Bill Hamid or Jon Busch. His top saves will almost all be extension saves. That's not saying he won't have any reaction saves (there's one that opens the video) but it's just not going to happen as often. Similarly, his lateral movement and post-to-post time is relatively slow. I think this has more to do with his body frame and what his focus has been as a goalkeeper up to now. Clearly he has a goalkeeper coach, not a goalkeeper trainer. If he had a trainer, he would be a quicker and stronger athlete but would have spent less time focusing on being a good goalkeeper. I'd still like to see a little more spring in his lead diving foot. Right now, his lead foot is more of a prop to rotate power generated from his back leg as opposed to giving us a nice Oliver Kahn-explosive dive. Several of his dives he doesn't get the elevation or power needed to cover the frame as much as he should.

Outlook

If there was a US goalkeeper I would compare him to it would be Brad Friedel. I know, I know, I don't want to Earl Edwards him - and I'm not - but he has the frame and approach that Friedel had. Both tall and lanky, they loved to let the game come to them and then respond, as if to say "Let's see the best you can do but I'm not worried about it." Friedel was never the most agile of goalkeepers but as someone who was playing in the EPL at 42, he clearly had some thought behind his play. Horvath is in a great position to grow as a goalkeeper. Like I said earlier, he has the mechanics that he can build off of and like David de Gea did, he can up his athleticism still. I'm not penning him down as a definite World Cup starter, but when he's compared to his peers he's noticeably ahead of them.

Bill Hamid: Outstanding or Overrated?

For most USMNT fans, Bill Hamid is expected to take over after the Guzan/Howard dust clears. Whether that means he’d start in the 2018 World Cup (at age 27) or the 2022 World Cup (31), the assumption right now is that he’ll get to at least one of those. Last Top 100, I rated DC United backup Andrew Dykstra over Hamid and some people were not happy. I realize Hamid will eventually surpass Dykstra but for Hamid, it’s been a great-save-weak-goal pattern this year. Let’s look at three tendencies that are holding Hamid back.

1v1 Technique

Hamid uses the starfish approach for 1v1 situations. There are many people who are advocates of this technique, most notably Tim Howard, who has integrated this approach into his repertoire. The problems that arise with the starfish shape are the massive gaps in between the arms and thighs (one on each side) as well as the gaping five-hole. The hands and arms are not guarding high percentage areas and are simply being thrown into the air. Additionally, Hamid uses it so aggressively that his feet end up jutting out so far forward, causing him to lean back instead of making his body go out wider. It turns it into more of a standing tackle than a sliding one. To compare, German legend Manuel Neuer does something similar but his body shape is more upright as well as having one knee to protect the five-hole.

Here’s a great 1v1 save by Hamid that put him in the running for MLS Save of the Week while using the starfish technique.

In this particular save, he times the shot well, a large reason of why he makes the save. Once the shooter connects with the ball, Hamid is exploding out into his shape. However, he is never truly set and the run-and-gun approach is only fitting for this specific of shot. If the shooter goes a little higher, he can slip it through the thigh-and-arm gap. Or if he shoots closer it, he can split Hamid’s legs (see below). Or if he hesitates his shot with another touch, Hamid is left in the dust, which is exactly what happens against New York City this last week.

Whenever there is a young prospect, media and fans are quick to give them a pass whenever plays don’t go their way. “There’s nothing the goalkeeper could do about that.” Well actually there’s a lot the goalkeeper could have done here. First off, he could have not gone to ground. Poku is too far out and at such an angle that Hamid doesn't need to go straight to ground. Secondly, Hamid is really running the risk of a red card with his cleats up slide, specifically his left foot. Because of him leading with his foot, we have another problem: Hamid’s body shape is not ideal. Hamid incorporates the rarely seen sit-and-scoot approach because he is too aggressive with his feet here. The motion pencils his body and as Poku starts to round Hamid, Hamid is not long enough to cover the goal mouth.

Sit-n-scoot

Hamid is trying to make a foot save on a shot that doesn’t happen. Later, Hamid finds himself against Poku and is exposed yet again by getting his legs split by the shot. The ball slips through Hamid's legs because of his excessively wide stance. (A closer look at the shot can be found here.)

Are these situation against Poku a difficult situation? Yes. Does Hamid help himself out as much as possible? No. He is overusing one technique for different situations. 1v1s should not be approached as a “one size fits all” mindset. Sometimes you must stay on your feet. Sometimes you need to go to ground. And then there are factors about body shape. Going back to the save of the week nominee, it’s a great save. There is no doubt that he stopped a goal scoring opportunity against Montreal. However his 1v1 approach is not something you would teach a young goalkeeper to do and definitely not at the quantity he does. It has plagued his game since day one and while it has gotten better, it still needs improvement.

Confusing Body Shape

We already saw examples of odd body motion choices by Hamid on 1v1 situation, but his standing shape can be equally confounding.

The point of the video is not to show if Hamid could have or couldn’t have saved the shot. David Villa is curling a shot from inside the 18. Okay, we get it, he’s really good and it’s a goal. Instead, let’s focus on Hamid’s form. He’s a little behind the shot and then he takes an incredibly awkward and confusing next step.

As the shot is taken, Hamid is not set

Hamid's awkward first step

Again, we’re not looking to see if Hamid could save the shot. If he could have I wouldn't be writing this right now. However, Hamid’s body shape and motion are far from ideal. A shot from three yards wide of his body and Hamid immediately goes for a foot save? Outside of a shot being hit right at his foot, there is no productive motion Hamid can make with this step. It is too far from his foot to save and he also can’t dive out because his of his egregious first step. We see the labor of his fruits as he can only spin backwards after the shot.

Here’s another play against New England where we see poor technique.

Hamid’s jump set is so wide his only movement he can make is backwards. You can see the strain on Hamid’s shoes as all his weight is on the outside of his foot, making it impossible for him to step towards any shot that’s away from him. Once again, this is less about if he could have made this particular save and more about analyzing his technique. Sure, he can't save that shot but if it's within reach he still cannot truly reach it because of his stance.

 

Savazos Over Hand Strength

Savazo - (n) - A great save stopping a golazo.

We’ve all seen the ridiculous saves. Hamid criminally has a 76 in reflexes and a 74 in diving in FIFA 15. A 90 for both would be more accurate. He has the spring and the explosiveness to get a shot most goalkeepers would just watch sail into the net. But twice this year (first and second) we’ve seen Hamid struggle with shots hit with pace that were well within his grasp. Both times, Hamid is caught between looking to catch and wanting to parry away and both times the result is a generous rebound for the opposition. There’s not a ton to say or show on these. He either needs to corral them, which is preferred, or get them out of danger.

Moving Forward

Hamid is receiving an anti-Steve Clark season in terms of perception and laud. Both of the two goalkeepers have made highlight reel save after save but given up less than impressive goals along the way. Unfortunately for Clark, the media is equally unimpressed by him as they are enamored by Hamid. Hamid is 25 in November and people have been comparing him to Tim Howard for years now. But Howard, at this time in his career, had started for Manchester United about thirty times. (Manchester United was a very good team.)

Players are different and Howard had his struggles overseas, but it’s late in Hamid’s career to be making these mistakes if he truly is looking to play at a higher league and start for the US. He’s a fine MLS goalkeeper, one definitely contributing to DC United’s season, but if he wants to be something more he needs to hone in his mechanics. Hamid sits middle of the pack in MLS goalkeepers because the ones ahead of him have been playing great. Nick Rimando is still going strong. David Ousted is probably going to win Goalkeeper of the Year. Stefan Frei and Luis Robles are having great seasons. Even DC United Andrew Dykstra had the best game of any goalkeeper this year. If Hamid is really supposed to be the best goalkeeper in the league, and the eventual starter for the US Men’s National Team, he can’t be having these hiccups every other week.