Howard v. Scotland - 11.15.13

Thank you Scotland for making this review a little bit easier on me. For the last two games of the year, neither Brad Guzan or Nick Rimando were called up for the Euro-friendlies. Guzan was reportedly dealing with an unnamed injury and Rimando was just left out in the cold. From Express and Star

Guzan was expected to be given a chance in at least one of the matches after starting in the USA’s final World Cup qualifier against Panama last month.  Jurgen Klinsmann’s side qualified for Brazil 2014 with Guzan fighting with Everton’s Tim Howard to start while DC United’s Bill Hamid and Sean Johnson of Chicago Fire trying to fill the third goalkeeping spot... Klinsmann said. “There are some injury issues that now give other players the chance to step up.”

...and 7500 to Holte...

...it seems Brad Guzan won't be part of the squad assembling for these friendlies. Instead, Tim Howard, Sean Johnson and Bill Hamid were the goalkeepers named by Jurgen Klinsmann. According to Twitter and some actually reputable news outlets, Guzan isn't on the list because he's picked up an injury. A vague injury. One that has yet to be confirmed or named by Aston Villa. Or articulated by any news sources.

So Howard starts while Johnson and Hamid pick up the slack. I'd expect for Johnson to start versus Austria on Tuesday but reserve the right to not be excited about it.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLqypKd8pVc&w=560&h=315]

Starter: Tim Howard Bench: Sean Johnson Not in 18: Bill Hamid

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Howard only had one save so I'm going to look more at his positioning than usual because what else is there to talk about when a goalie only saves one shot?

Seventh minute, a cross gets sent in that Cameron clears while Howard does the "should I, shouldn't I?" dance in the box. The ball drops to Craig Conway a top of the box and Howard does about fifty jump sets that continually inch him forward to the ball.

It's small, as is this post on this game, but he's cutting down his reaction time and opening up a backdoor chip. It doesn't affect the game but it's not a good practice.

Twenty-fourth minute, Howard faces a free kick outside the box. But the free kick taker, Charlie Mulgrew, has lined up so drastically to the right of the ball that the only realistic shot on goal would be right at Howard.

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Howard easily sees this over.

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In the thirty-sixth minute, Howard faces a somewhat similar situation that he faced against England in 2010: a simple throw-in unzips the back line when the CB unsuccessfully chases the ball up field. However, Scotland does not have Steven Gerrard on their team and do not put the ball on target. Howard does a good job of covering the goal width.

Howard makes zero saves in the first half and is still at a 0.0 for his GSAR at this time. A few minutes into the second half he is finally called upon.

Yawn? I thought so too. US Soccer only gave him one save for the game (and we all know what's coming up next) so I guess they thought this was too easy to credit with a save as well. Howard takes note of how boring this was and makes up for it by giving us a wonderful distribution.

Fifty-third minute and we get the save of the match.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJ77Olakko8&w=560&h=315]

For all those Howard nay-sayers saying he struggles with long free kicks... yooou could still argue that because this is actually very different from previous free kick goals. Here, he can see the ball before the shot but against Guatemala he could not. So while the shot is a little faster at ~57 mph, Howard has a full second to get to the ball as opposed to less than half a second. In the first ever "How They Saved [It]" Howard reveals that he was expecting the shot to go to his left. So Howard sees the ball the entire way to a spot he is already leaning towards. Not to take away from the save, but it is different.

If Howard doesn't make that save... well there might be people screaming for Guzan but I don't think anyone would really blame Howard on that one.

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shutout: -0

36' catch: +.01 53' save: +.77

Total: +.78

And that was it. Don't be surprised to see Johnson on Tuesday. [SPOILER IT IS HOWARD AGAIN]

Top 100 American Goalkeepers (November 2013)

No player profile this month as I'm pushing to finish my GSAR before the Goalkeeper of the Year award goes to the wrong guy. And hopefully I'll get around to compiling a Steve Clark highlight video just in case he needs to find a new team next season. (Try to catch the finale this Saturday, 9-ish CT, not exactly sure when.) I tweaked my formula so a lot of college guys dropped out and lower tier veterans sneaked back in.  But of note, Bendik jumps to number 7 from 10 and Dykstra rises from 40 to 26. Also Blake Hylen (senior at San Diego St) represents the collegiate class at number 100. I'm still not completely sold on Hylen so I'm just penciling his name in for now. Also Patrick Wall hasn't been on great form lately so he slipped out of the 100. (He'll be back, I'm sure.)

[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="key=0AttujdNBdATWdFplNUFBWVo1TVZKa2xPclpqQ3FCQ1E&output=html&widget=true" width="500" height="1000" /]

Here's a bit of a sneak preview for my 2013 MLS GSAR stat. I haven't finished it (as you'll see) but just in case anyone had any doubt it shouldn't be Rimando...

[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="key=0AttujdNBdATWdGh0a1V0QWp6ZHlLcDlJYmlyd1oxQkE&output=html&widget=true" width="500" height="600" /]

 

(web page here)

As you can see, Rimando has a +10.75 goals saved above replacement. Second is Joe Bendik at +10.47 although Rimando has played four less games than Bendik.

"Okay but what are these stats based on? How is that number calculated." Uh, well I wasn't really thinking ahead to save my work (sorry all middle school math teachers) to show it to the public but coming from someone who has probably seen 100 times more highlight videos on these goalkeepers, please trust me. DO NOT VOTE JIMMY NIELSEN PLEASE. He is a fine enough goalkeeper but not deserving of this award. His GAA hides behind a great defense. DO NOT VOTE FOR TALLY HALL. It's great that he's been called into the national team but he has not performed as well as Rimando. Save percentage and goals allowed are not accurate assessments of a goalkeeper's ability.

If that does not convince you, here is American Soccer Analysis' expected goals allowed compared to real:

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(These stats are based off of ASA's shot location stats which you can see here.)

Portland tops the list with only giving up 33 goals while they were expected to give up 40.1 this year. But RSL has a lower dGA (difference in GA, colored column) than Portland because, I think, of the defense. Who is the Timbers' best defender? Michael Harrington? RSL has Borchers, McDonald, Wingert and Beltran. If you did vote for Ricketts over Rimando, eh, but okay. But please some of these other selections are not appropriate.

Look, SKC has a -0.2 dGA to RSL's 5.1. If you voted for Nielsen over Rimando you're essentially saying that the SKC defense was so miserable than they negated all of Nielsen's efforts and RSL's defense, on the other hand, was even better than SKC's and that Rimando had very little to do with it. DO NOT SAY THIS.

Whew. Okay, looking forward, I have interviews with Alan Mayer and Brad Stuver coming in the next week, a re-visiting of the 1989 win in Trinidad and Tobago to celebrate the 25-(minus one)-th anniversary, and an MLS end of the year write up of what goalkeepers should be going and coming. It should be an exciting month [for people who care about goalkeepers].