US Women's National Team Goalkeeper Pool - May 2015

Cover photo by Mike Gridley

The World Cup is in 33 days. Hosts Canada take on China on June 6th and the US follow up two days later against Australia. In the case the 59 best goalkeepers get sick, we'll be ready for an emergency call-up for the USWNT.

The list has been expanded to include the top sixty since last edition's. The list should now reflect the top W-League and WPSL goalkeepers, bumping some of the younger players down or off the list. Both leagues are technically the second tier so I distinguished the listed goalkeepers as USA.2W (W-League) and the USA.2P (WPSL). The leagues kick off this month but I'm not 100% all the goalkeepers below are still active. We had multiple goalkeepers retire since the last release and the second leagues have a fairly large turnover of players. So while a goalkeeper may be listed here, they could have already quietly retired. Once the leagues get started in a couple weeks, we should know for certain but until then this is the best I can do.

Lastly, there are some young players either at the bottom or not on the list at all. The same principle applies for the USMNT list, a promising 21-23 year old goalkeeper is inherently behind one that is four years older than them, even if they will quickly surpass them. This is the current list, not a projected one.

rank. name (team / league) - rating (age)

1. Ashlyn Harris (Washington Spirit / USA.1) - 57.8 (29.6)
2. Hope Solo (Seattle Reign / USA.1) - 57.7 (33.8)
3. Alyssa Naeher (Boston Breakers / USA.1) - 57.5 (27.1)
4. Michelle Betos (Portland Thorns FC / USA.1) - 57.4 (27.3)
5. Libby Stout (Liverpool / England.1) - 57.3 (24.9)
6. Katie Fraine (Linkoping / Sweden.1) - 57.2 (27.4)
7. Ashley Thompson (Medkila / Norway.1) - 56.5 (29.3)
8. Nicole Barnhart (FC Kansas City / USA.1) - 56.5 (33.6)
9. Michele Dalton (Chicago Red Stars / USA.1) - 56.4 (27)
10. Alyssa Whitehead (Mallbacken / Sweden.1) - 56.3 (25.4)

11. Brittany Cameron (Sky Blue FC / USA.1) - 56.3 (28.4)
12. Chantel Jones (Western New York Flash / USA.1) - 56.2 (26.8)
13. Brett Maron (Kristianstad / Sweden.1) - 56 (28.9)
14. Adelaide Gay (Kvarnsveden / Sweden.2) - 55.9 (25.5)
15. Arianna Criscione (Saint-Étienne / France.1) - 55.7 (30.3)
16. Catherine Fitzsimmons (ASPTT Albi / France.1) - 55.6 (26.5)
17. Jeannette Williams (Vikingur Olafsvik / Iceland.2) - 55.5 (26.3)
18. Allysa Clark (Masinac Nis / Serbia.1) - 55.4 (28.7)
19. Adrianna Franch (Avaldsnes IL / Norway.1) - 55.3 (24.5)
20. Bianca Henninger (Houston Dash / USA.1) - 55.1 (24.6)

21. Chanté Sandiford (UMF Selfoss / Iceland.1) - 55.1 (25.3)
22. Cris Lewis (THUSC Diamonds / USA.2P) - 54.9 (27)
23. Alexa Gaul (Selfoss / Iceland.1) - 55 (24)
24. Haley Kopmeyer (Seattle Reign / USA.1) - 54.9 (24.9)
25. Vikki Alonzo (Thor / KA / Iceland.1) - 54.8 (25.3)
26. Shelby Tomasello (Höttur / Iceland.2) - 54.6 (24.6)
27. Jennifer Manis (Tampa Bay Hellenic / USA.2P) - 54.5 (29.3)
28. Dijana Haracic (Krokom/Dvarsatts IF / Sweden.2) - 54.2 (23.3)
29. Micaela Crowley (IR Reykjavik / Iceland.2) - 54 (30.3)
30. Aubrey Bledsoe (Sky Blue FC / USA.1) - 54 (23.5)

31. Samantha Depken (New York Magic / USA.2W) - 53.9 (26.2)
32. Kelsey Wys (Washington Spirit / USA.1) - 53.8 (24.3)
33. Jami Kranich (Boston Breakers / USA.1) - 53.8 (23)
34. Meagan McCray (Valur / Iceland.1) - 53.8 (27.9)
35. Rebecca Ritchie (Real Salt Lake Women / USA.2P) - 53.6 (27.3)
35. Sarah Glass (Throttur Reykjavik / Iceland.2) - 53.6 (27.3)
37. Robyn Jones (Charlotte Lady Eagles / USA.2W) - 53.5 (30.3)
38. Yiana Dimmitt (Bay Area Freeze / USA.2P) - 53.4 (25.3)
39. Katherine Linn (Issy / France.1) - 53.3 (23.3)
40. Shannon O'Brien (FC Nashville / USA.2P) - 53.2 (35.3)

41. Audrey Baldwin (Keflavik IF / Iceland.1) - 53.1 (23.2)
42. Caitlin Updyke (IA Akranes / Iceland.1) - 53.1 (23)
43. Victoria Johnson (FC Tulsa Spirit / USA.2P) - 53.1 (26.3)
44. Emily Lillard (Washington Spirit / USA.1) - 53 (23.3)
45. Lindsey Maricic (LA Premier FC / USA.2P) - 53 (23.1)
47. Victoria Christ (Västerås BK30 / Sweden.3) - 52.8 (23.3)
47. Megan Kinneman (Houston Dash / USA.1) - 52.6 (22.9)
48. Kaitlyn Stroud (Free Agent / None) - 52.4 (23.3)
49. Brittany Anghel (Free Agent / None) - 52.1 (22.8)
50. Paige Burnett (Free Agent / None) - 52.1 (22.6)

51. Sydney Drinkwater (Florida Atlantic / USA.N) - 52 (22.3)
52. McKenzie Sauerwein (Colorado Rush / USA.2W) - 52 (23)
53. Caroline Stanley (Seattle Reign / USA.1) - 51.8 (22.2)
53. Megan Kufeld (Washington / USA.N) - 51.8 (22.2)
53. Bree Benedict (Rutgers / USA.N) - 51.8 (22.2)
56. Kelli Cornell (New Mexico / USA.N) - 51.6 (22.3)
56. Morgan Glick (IA Akranes / Iceland.1) - 51.6 (22.3)
58. Monica Gonyo (Free Agent / None) - 51.4 (22.6)
59. Katherine Courter (North Jersey Valkyries / USA.2W) - 51.4 (23.3)
60. Erin Quinn (ASA Charge FC / USA.2P) - 51.3 (22.2)

If you are outraged or encouraged by the list in any capacity, feel free to drop a line by emailing me at everybodysoccer@yahoo.com or sending a polite tweet at @letsallsoccer.

Everybody Soccered - April 2015

 April 30th

Last things for the end of the month. Joe Nasco has underwent successful surgery for his twice broken foot. He has a GoFundMe to help his family out this year, as he is unable to run his goalkeeping camps this summer. I'm sure his family will appreciate any donated amount, even a dollar.

This is a little late but Eduardo Fernandez, a goalkeeper for Real Monarchs, spoke about his ties with Mexico and the US.

Along the lines of another Google translate-needed article, John McCarthy could find a little more security in Philadelphia with M'Bolhi hinting at his exit. He will still have to contend with Andre Blake when he is 100% healthy, of course, but right now he is the starter.

Kristin Nicht transferred from Indy 11 to Montreal Impact in hopes to help them win the CONCACAF Champions League. Well that didn't happen but on a positive note the starting spot in Indy is open between two youngsters: Keith Cardona and Jon Dawson. Dawson spent last year as a backup with Indy and Cardona is returning from an appearance-less trip to Austria. I would assume Dawson, two years older than Cardona, would earn the starting spot but time will tell. They don't have a game this weekend so the team should have enough time to make the correct decision.

Looks like we have big things coming this next month!



April 26th

The highlight of the month, if not year, was my interview with an old USMNT goalkeeper, Victor Gerley. We discussed his time as a professional and what the 1966 WCQ cycle was like. I then followed that up with some in-depth analysis about Cody Cropper. TLDR? He's showing improvement but still has some room to grow.

Tally Hall is training again and looking to return soon. Donovan Ricketts hasn't exactly been helpful for Orlando so if Hall is back to 100%, they'll be anxious to have him start.

In Cup action, both Quentin Westberg (Sarpsborg 08) and Ethan Horvath (Molde) earned shutouts.

Clint Irwin and Joe Nasco weighed in on my interview with Pat Wall, who retired much earlier than expected.

The US Open Cup kicked off its preliminary round this weekend. The first round, featuring PDL and NPSL teams, starts May 13th. There will be some NCAA D1 starters in the mix as always so keep an eye out there. For example, Everybody Soccer alum Hunter Harrison will be playing with the Tulsa Athletics this spring and likely in the tournament.


April 16th

National Team Round Up

  • The US Men's National Team has recently seen new personnel in goal. Familiar face Nick Rimando played the full 90 against Denmark but William Yarbrough came in for the second half against Switzerland and Mexico, the latter where he also holds citizenship. It was an exceptionally proud moment after another glorious dos a cero performance when Mexico's goalkeeping was clearly in need of help. Here is WPY talking about his time with the USMNT and another with Alvarado. For analysis on Mr. Yarbrough, I wrote about him on Soccer Over There.

  • The U23s enjoyed a decent performance in Europe with Charlie Horton and Tyler Miller in the gloves. Horton started both games and Miller played the second half against Denmark. Here are highlights of the Denmark and Bosnia and Herzegovina games. 

  • Hope Solo started for the Women's Team against New Zealand but sat comfortably untested in the 4-0 win. Solo, Ashlyn Harris, and Alyssa Naeher comprise of the goalkeeping core for the official World Cup roster.

  • Jeff Caldwell (University of Virginia) started for the U20s against England. Caldwell could push Ethan Horvath for the backup spot for this summer's World Cup. Zack Steffen is the expected starter.

  • Lastly, and although not technically affiliated with the USSF, the United States won the first World Minifootball Federation World Cup last month (aka indoor soccer). Danny Waltman and Joey Kapinos split time to lead the US to victory. Here are highlights of the final, full of over the top announcers, a classic US-Mexico scuffle (4:55) and Waltman making a fantastic save (7:10).

Goalkeeper Happenings

Kasey Keller has been elected to the Hall of Fame while Briana Scurry has been left off for her second year in a row. Scurry had 173 caps (71 more than Keller), was a part of the most iconic moment in the Women's Team's history, and has more than a few honors to her name. The only explainable reason she wasn't inducted in either of these two years is that they forgot she was on the ballot.

Philadelphia is in full support of John McCarthy, their newest goalkeeper. The Union are hoping he can undo some of the team's low moments in their history, many of them goalkeeper-related, but their claim to finding a hidden gem is somewhat misleading. After McCarthy graduated from La Salle, he went undrafted in 77 picks during the 2014 MLS SuperDraft. McCarthy went on trial with the Sounders soon after but ended up not being offered a contract there either. He fell to the USL, where he thrived, and then came back strong this year to win the third string job in Philadelphia for 2015.

Philadelphia's head coach, Jim Curtin, recently said about McCarthy “He’s a kid that I’ve watched play for a long time and a guy that I rated pretty highly. I monitored him last year when he went on trial in Seattle, monitored him last year with USL PRO in Rochester. He’s a guy I believe in and a guy that I believe can do the job.” This is confusing because if Philadelphia had rated McCarthy highly, they would have selected him with one of their eight draft picks. Instead McCarthy was passed over for Andre Blake (two years older than McCarthy) as well as six other players who aren't even on roster with Philadelphia anymore, most of those not being offered a contract going into the season. And, yes, Philadelphia was full on goalkeepers at the moment, but they could have sent McCarthy to Harrisburg if they really thought he was a future MLS starter. Don't be misled. McCarthy's rise to Philadelphia's starter has less to do with MLS and Philadelphia, and more to do with the goalkeeper himself.

On the subject of MLS goalkeepers, they have had a rough start to the season.

The numbers above are a game-by-game GSAR total. Goals saved above replacement is a stat I created to track goalkeepers' performances. Only six goalkeepers have actually helped their team this season while sixteen have hurt their team, with the ever decreasingly popular M'Bolhi in dead last. In total, there have been 11 more goals conceded than a replacement goalkeeper's expected performance. So it's safe to say the start of the season has been rough for MLS goalkeepers.

Goalkeeper Link House

  • Here's a video of Adelaide Gay training with her new team and fielding some questions about her new environment. Gay was a backup for Washington last year and (sounds like) will be a starter for Kvarnsveden, a second division Finnish team.
  • Jimmy Maurer probably had the save of the season in early NASL action.
  • Roger Bennett spoke with Tim Howard and Brad Guzan about what it's like to be a goalkeeper in the Premier League. It's 30 minutes long so get comfy.
  • The Richmond Kickers v Wilmington Hammerheads highlights feature a sweet opposite direction save by DC United-loanee Travis Worra, a penalty save by Worra, and then a 30-ish passing sequence for a goal.
  • I wrote about how Nick Rimando will almost certainly not win MLS's Goalkeeper of the Year award on ASA.
  • A while back I wrote about Tim Howard's recent play and the same day he made a sweet save just to spite what I wrote.
  • And of course there is the Top 100 American Goalkeepers but you already knew that.

Top 100 American Goalkeepers - April 2015

The top 100 welcomes back Spencer Richey and gives an equally warm greeting to first timers Brian Sylvestre, Warren Gross, and Larry Jackson. I'm sure all four will be around for some time.

Largest movers from two months ago include Larry Jackson (+19), Josh Saunders (+18), and Tyler Deric (+15).

For a complete history or rankings, click here. And for those interested in the top 50 Women American goalkeepers, you can find that list here.

1. Brad Guzan (Aston Villa / England.1) - 77.8 (30.6)
2. Tim Howard (Everton FC / England.1) - 76.4 (36.1)
3. Steve Clark (Columbus Crew / USA.1) - 71.6 (29)
4. Brad Friedel (Tottenham Hotspur / England.1) - 69.9 (43.9)
5. Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake / USA.1) - 69.8 (35.8)
6. Luis Robles (New York Red Bulls / USA.1) - 69.8 (30.9)
7. Bill Hamid (DC United / USA.1) - 69.1 (24.4)
8. Stefan Frei (Seattle Sounders / USA.1) - 68.8 (29)
9. Chris Seitz (FC Dallas / USA.1) - 68.8 (28.1)
10. Tyler Deric (Houston Dynamo / USA.1) - 68.6 (26.7)

11. Brian Rowe (Los Angeles Galaxy / USA.1) - 68.4 (26.4)
12. William Yarbrough (Leon / Mexico.1) - 68.4 (26.1)
13. Tally Hall (Orlando City SC / USA.1) - 68.4 (29.9)
14. Evan Bush (Montreal Impact / USA.1) - 68.3 (29.1)
15. Bobby Shuttleworth (New England Revolution / USA.1) - 68.2 (27.9)
16. Joseph Bendik (Toronto FC / USA.1) - 68.2 (26)
17. Clint Irwin (Colorado Rapids / USA.1) - 68.2 (26)
18. Ryan Meara (Wilmington Hammerheads / USA.3) - 68.1 (24.4)
19. Joe Willis (Houston Dynamo / USA.1) - 68.1 (26.7)
20. Jon Busch (Chicago Fire / USA.1) - 68.1 (38.7)

21. David Bingham (San Jose Earthquakes / USA.1) - 68.1 (25.5)
22. Dan Kennedy (FC Dallas / USA.1) - 68 (32.8)
23. Sean Johnson (Chicago Fire / USA.1) - 68 (25.9)
24. Austin Guerrero (Estudiantes de Altamira / Mexico.2) - 67.9 (26.1)
25. Andrew Weber (Portland Timbers / USA.1) - 67.9 (31.7)
26. Zac MacMath (Colorado Rapids / USA.1) - 67.9 (23.7)
27. Jeff Attinella (Real Salt Lake / USA.1) - 67.9 (26.6)
28. Troy Perkins (Seattle Sounders / USA.1) - 67.8 (33.8)
29. Quentin Westberg (Sarpsborg 08 / Norway.1) - 67.8 (29)
30. Tim Melia (Sporting Kansas City / USA.1) - 67.5 (28.1)

31. Brad Knighton (New England Revolution / USA.1) - 67.4 (30.2)
32. Alex Horwath (SK Brann / Norway.1) - 67.3 (28.1)
33. Mitch Hildebrandt (Minnesota United FC / USA.2) - 67.3 (26.4)
34. Eric Kronberg (Montreal Impact / USA.1) - 67.2 (31.8)
35. Matt Pyzdrowski (Helsingborg IF / Sweden.1) - 67.1 (28.7)
36. Brian Perk (Los Angeles Galaxy / USA.1) - 67.1 (25.8)
37. Jimmy Maurer (New York Cosmos / USA.2) - 67 (27.5)
38. Evan Newton (Oklahoma City Energy FC / USA.3) - 66.9 (27)
39. Matt Pickens (Tampa Bay Rowdies / USA.2) - 66.8 (33)
40. David Yelldell (Bayer Leverkusen / Germany.1) - 66.7 (34.3)

41. Alec Kann (St. Louis FC / USA.3) - 66.7 (24.7)
42. Andrew Fontein (Minnesota United FC / USA.2) - 66.6 (25.1)
43. Josh Saunders (New York City FC / USA.1) - 66.6 (34.1)
44. Matt Lampson (Columbus Crew / USA.1) - 66.5 (25.6)
45. John McCarthy (Philadelphia Union / USA.1) - 66.4 (22.8)
46. Kyle Reynish (New York Red Bulls / USA.1) - 66.3 (31.4)
47. Diego Restrepo (Charlotte Independence / USA.3) - 66.3 (27.2)
48. Andrew Dykstra (DC United / USA.1) - 66.2 (29.3)
49. Josh Ford (Orlando City SC / USA.1) - 66.2 (27.4)
50. Bryan Meredith (San Jose Earthquakes / USA.1) - 66.2 (25.7)

51. Josh Wicks (AFC United / Sweden.2) - 66.1 (31.4)
52. Patrick McLain (Sacramento Republic / USA.3) - 66.1 (26.7)
53. Jon Kempin (San Antonio Scorpions / USA.2) - 66 (22)
54. Caleb Patterson-Sewell (Gil Vicente FC / Portugal.1) - 65.9 (27.9)
55. Will Dieterich (Tindastóll / Iceland.2) - 65.9 (28.1)
56. Carl Woszczynski (Arizona United / USA.3) - 65.9 (27)
57. David Meves (Fort Lauderdale Strikers / USA.2) - 65.9 (25.8)
58. Matt Van Oekel (FC Edmonton / USA.2) - 65.8 (28.6)
59. Joe Nasco (Fort Lauderdale Strikers / USA.2) - 65.8 (30.8)
60. Zac Lubin (Tulsa Roughnecks / USA.3) - 65.8 (25.7)

61. Lance Parker (FC Edmonton / USA.2) - 65.7 (29.7)
62. Scott Goodwin (Louisville City FC / USA.3) - 65.6 (24.4)
63. John Berner (Charlotte Independence / USA.3) - 65.6 (24.2)
64. Jon Dawson (Indy Eleven / USA.2) - 65.6 (24.1)
65. Devala Gorrick (Colorado Springs Switchbacks / USA.3) - 65.6 (27.8)
66. Akira Fitzgerald (New York City FC / USA.1) - 65.6 (27.8)
67. Adam Grinwis (Rochester Rhinos / USA.3) - 65.6 (23)
68. Scott Angevine (Free Agent / None) - 65.5 (25.9)
69. Phil Saunders (Bolungarvík FC / Iceland.2) - 65.3 (23.6)
70. Cody Cropper (Southampton / England.1) - 65.3 (22.2)

71. Trevor Spangenberg (New England Revolution / USA.1) - 65.2 (24)
72. Tom Al Madon (Hapoel Tel Aviv FC / Israel.1) - 65.2 (30.4)
73. Kenneth Kronholm (Holstein Kiel / Germany.3) - 65 (29.5)
74. Brandon Miller (Rochester Rhinos / USA.3) - 65 (25.3)
75. Brad Stuver (Columbus Crew / USA.1) - 65 (24)
76. Nathan Stockie (Jippo / Finland.3) - 64.9 (26.1)
77. Kyle Zobeck (New York Cosmos / USA.2) - 64.8 (25.2)
78. Brian Holt (New York Cosmos / USA.2) - 64.8 (26.4)
79. Patrick Lane (Karlstad BK / Sweden.4) - 64.8 (26.7)
80. Hunter Gilstrap (Carolina RailHawks / USA.2) - 64.7 (32)

81. Larry Jackson (Wilmington Hammerheads / USA.3) - 64.7 (24.6)
82. Thomas Hunter (Free Agent / None) - 64.7 (26.8)
83. Brad Sienkiewicz (Free Agent / None) - 64.7 (25.5)
84. Markus Dickerson (Kongsvinger IL / Norway.3) - 64.6 (24.9)
85. Chris Konopka (Toronto FC / USA.1) - 64.5 (30)
86. Ryan Taylor (Richmond Kickers / USA.3) - 64.5 (24.8)
87. Justin Luthy (Portland Timbers II / USA.3) - 64.5 (24)
88. Daniel Withrow (Portland Timbers II / USA.3) - 64.5 (24.9)
89. Dominik Jakubek (Sacramento Republic / USA.3) - 64.3 (35.6)
90. Oliver Blum (TB Uphusen / Germany.5) - 64.3 (25.3)

91. Paul Rachubka (Oldham Athletic / England.3) - 64.3 (33.9)
92. Carlos Rojas (CD Cruz Azul / Mexico.1) - 64.3 (25.1)
93. Sanel Boric (1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig / Germany.5) - 64.1 (27.8)
94. Nick Shackelford (Los Angeles Galaxy II / USA.3) - 64.1 (24.5)
95. Cody Laurendi (Austin Aztex / USA.3) - 64.1 (26.7)
96. Lionel Brown (Fort Lauderdale Strikers / USA.2) - 64.1 (27.6)
97. Cody Mizell (Free Agent / None) - 63.9 (23.6)
98. Spencer Richey (Vancouver Whitecaps II / USA.3) - 63.9 (22.9)
99. Brian Sylvestre (Carolina RailHawks / USA.2) - 63.9 (22.3)
100. Warren Gross (Western Mass Pro Soccer / USA.4) - 63.8 (26.3)

 

And something special for those who scrolled this far, here are the top ten goalkeepers in MLS, NASL, and USL, regardless of nationality. It's early in the season, so a lot can still happen. The final top 10 at the end of the season will likely look drastically different so for those non-Minnesota fans, don't get too upset just yet.

MLS

1. Steve Clark (Columbus Crew)
2.Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake)
3. Luis Robles (New York Red Bulls)
4. Bill Hamid (DC United)
5. Stefan Frei (Seattle Sounders)
6. Chris Seitz (FC Dallas)
7. Jaime Penedo* (Los Angeles Galaxy)
8. Tyler Deric (Houston Dynamo)
 9. Brian Rowe (Los Angeles Galaxy)
10. Tally Hall (Orlando City SC)

NASL

1. Mitch Hildebrandt (Minnesota United FC ) - 67.3 (26.4)
2. Sammy N'Djock* (Minnesota United FC ) - 67.2 (25.2)
3. Jimmy Maurer (New York Cosmos ) - 67 (27.5)
4. John Smits* (FC Edmonton ) - 67 (26.6)
5. Matt Pickens (Tampa Bay Rowdies ) - 66.8 (33)
6. Andrew Fontein (Minnesota United FC ) - 66.6 (25.1)
7. Romuald Peiser* (Ottawa Fury ) - 66.1 (35.7)
8. Kamil Čontofalský* (Tampa Bay Rowdies ) - 66.1 (36.8)
9. Jon Kempin (San Antonio Scorpions ) - 66 (22)
10. Miguel Gallardo* (Jacksonville Armada ) - 66 (30.5)

USL

1. Jake Gleeson* (Portland Timbers II) - 68.5 (24.8)
2. Ryan Meara (Wilmington Hammerheads) - 68.1 (24.4)
3. Evan Newton (Oklahoma City Energy FC ) - 66.9 (27)
4. Alec Kann (St. Louis FC ) - 66.7 (24.7)
5. Kyle Reynish (New York Red Bulls / USA.1) - 66.3 (31.4)
6. Diego Restrepo (Charlotte Independence ) - 66.3 (27.2)
7. Patrick McLain (Sacramento Republic ) - 66.1 (26.7)
8. Paolo Tornaghi* (Vancouver Whitecaps II ) - 66 (26.8)
9. Carl Woszczynski (Arizona United ) - 65.9 (27)
10. Zac Lubin (Tulsa Roughnecks ) - 65.8 (25.7)

CONCACAF and the World Cup: A Foreign Journey for Most

Below are CONCACAF World Cup qualifying percentages. I took ELO ratings, which are noticeably different than FIFA's, and put the difference in rating on a bell curve to find advancement percentages. For example, if the US played Aruba, the different in ELO rating is +862 (or -862 from Aruba's perspective). These numbers are, admittedly, a total eyeball guess. 

ELO point difference - chance of winning
+500 - .977
+400 - .945
+300 - .885
+200 - .788
+100 - .655

There are two sections. The top section is percent chance a nation will finish in the top four teams, essentially qualifying for the World Cup. (The fourth placed team will be in playoff match with another continent's nation. So that team still has another hurdle to clear but I didn't know how to change the percentages to reflect that.)

The second section is percent change the nation will leave the round. This is mainly centered around the minnows, since their World Cup chances are <.1%.

The other CONCACAF-related Google doc is a look at youth tournaments for CONCACAF play. I went back and ranked each team 1-to-however many teams there were that year. There were tournaments before 2004 but I haven't done those and most likely never will.

color code
Green - Qualified for World Cup or Olympics
Purple - Did not participate in qualifying tournament
Orange - North America
Yellow - Central America
Red - Caribbean Zone

The blue columns count how many times the nation has finished in the top 10 and their overall finishing rank. The second section is the nation's performance at the World Cup or Olympics.