Player Journal: Noah Heim - March 2017

Freshman goalkeeper Noah Heim talks about the past fall and starting a new spring. You can read all the player journals here.

After redshirting last fall, what's something you've managed to pick up or work on that you'll utilize next year?

This is kind of a simple answer, but the amount of reps I can do at a time. I think that this is pretty important because you don’t want to pick up bad habits by tiring yourself out too early on in a training.

With more focus on training instead of in-game play, how has this impacted your growth as a goalkeeper?

Goalkeeper is a position that’s pretty much based on experience and the situations that you’ve seen for knowing how to deal with it. Some situations can be replicated in training, but most of the situations cannot. So in a way, I feel like I’ve been missing out on that portion of the position of goalkeeper through my redshirt. On the flipside, I also get more time to tighten up the bolts of my game on game days that I don’t travel with the team through personal practice. There are definitely pros and cons to not playing.

You've finished your first season with Marquette now. How has your view towards the college game changed, if at all?

My views about the college game haven’t changed that much, but my understanding for it has. The way the goalkeeper needs to play with the ball at his feet is insanely different. The quicker that he gets the ball moving again really affects how much time the teammate he plays it to has. I never really understood this and didn’t think that goalkeepers would have that much weight to carry in buildups and breaks. Quickness and quality of ball movement is something that I’ve really started getting grasp on.

Noah is on the right, in the blue goalkeeper jersey. Photo belongs to Louis Bennett.

Noah is on the right, in the blue goalkeeper jersey. Photo belongs to Louis Bennett.

What Does 100 Caps Mean?

This is a revising of an earlier post I had whenever DeMarcus Beasley hit his 100th cap in the summer of 2013. Numbers are updated through 2019.

DeMarcus Beasley, Tim Howard, and Clint Dempsey all within the last two years reached their 100th appearance for the men's senior team. But what does this actually entail for players today? How hard of an achievement is this?

Over 700 different players have suited up for America, so being part of the top 2% is something special in itself. However, no American athlete was in a position to reach 100 caps until 1998. In fact, if you played every game from 1885 (USA's first match against Canada) until 1971, an incredible eighty-seven-year career, you would still only have played 95 games. It wasn't until recently that the USMNT started playing enough games for a player to reach the milestone.

Number of games played by the USMNT each year

Number of games played by the USMNT each year

Looking at the graph, there are a few things we can immediately take away from the ascending line.

1. 1993 and 1994 had 35 games and 29 games, respectively. We haven't topped 24 games outside of those two years before or since. Clearly the team was aiming to be prepared before hosting the World Cup. Those that played during those two years had a nice boost in caps.

2. The average games per year jumps up around 1990. As the USMNT started becoming more of a serious contender on the international stage, the number of games rose at the same time. Again this can be tied to the World Cup bid as well.

3. The 1950 World Cup win over England seemed to have very little impact on the overall program. The men weren't playing that many games prior to (which you could attribute to the war) but also didn't really experience a consistent rise until forty years later. For example, no games were played at all in 1981.

4. The current games per year is hovering around 20. It'd be tough to add more games than 20 in 12 months. Granted, years with big tournaments will ramp it up but overall 16-20 should be the average.

To help normalize and weigh cap totals, we’ll establish an IPC (international playing career) for field players and goalkeepers. For top field players, an average career ranged from 19 to 34 years old, while a top goalkeeper’s career was typically from 19-38. By finding the total amount of available games one could play in their career, we can compare cap totals from different eras. For those that had few games available in their time, their wighted cap total (WCT) will rise, while players who had a lot of games will see their WCT drop. Using this method, early twentieth century players have a chance at passing the 100 cap mark.

Player WCT Born Caps 100-Equiv
Walter Bahr 153 1927 19 12
Cobi Jones 144 1970 164 114
Harry Keough 137 1927 17 12
Landon Donovan 133 1982 157 118
Manuel Martin 132 1917 9 7
John Souza 130 1920 14 11
Fernando Clavijo 124 1956 61 49
Clint Dempsey 121 1983 141 117
Ed Murphy 118 1930 17 14
Jeff Agoos 118 1968 134 114
Marcelo Balboa 113 1967 128 113
Claudio Reyna 111 1973 112 101
Paul Caligiuri 111 1964 110 99
DaMarcus Beasley 106 1982 126 118
Tom Florie 105 1897 8 8
Charlie Colombo 102 1920 11 11
Boris Bandov 98 1953 33 34
Carlos Bocanegra 97 1979 110 114
Benny McLaughlin 97 1928 12 12
Thomas Dooley 96 1961 81 85
Eric Wynalda 92 1969 106 115
Joe-Max Moore 90 1971 100 111
Earnie Stewart 88 1969 101 115
Frankie Hejduk 87 1974 87 100
Brian McBride 87 1972 95 109
Alexi Lalas 85 1970 96 114
Eddie Lewis 82 1974 82 100
Willy Roy 82 1943 20 24
Desmond Armstrong 82 1964 81 99
Eddie Pope 81 1973 82 101
Bruce Murray 81 1966 86 106
Bill Sheppell 81 1926 10 12
John Harkes 80 1967 90 113
Steve Cherundolo 77 1979 87 114
Tab Ramos 76 1966 81 106
Hugo Perez 75 1963 73 98
Chris Henderson 70 1970 79 114
Adelino Gonsalves 68 1908 6 9
Irving Davis 66 1896 5 8
George Moorhouse 65 1901 7 11

While Paul Caliguri's true cap total is 110, his WCT is 111 because he had less opportunities to get to 100 than those that followed him, although by only a few games. On the reverse side, Carlos Bocanegra's 110 caps drops to a 97 WCT because he had more games to play in. Bocanegra's IPC is 284 while Caliguri's is only 248.

As for goalkeepers, they're a little more tricky. It's harder for them to get to 100 caps, weighted or unweighted, because they can't slide to another position on the field. Only one can play and it's rare to see one subbed at halftime. So for now, we're going to apply the 40% rule to them as well but knowing we can probably drop it to 30% if we are truly trying to find an even bar for everyone to pass.

Player WCT Born Caps 100-Equiv
Tim Howard 114 1979 121 106
Jimmy Douglas 97 1898 9 9
Frank Borghi 94 1925 9 10
Kasey Keller 90 1969 102 114
Tony Meola 88 1969 100 114
Brad Friedel 70 1971 82 117
Arnie Mausser 56 1954 35 63

And lastly, here are the top active players with high projected WCT paces. A few of these players’ WCTs are still erratic for players early into their career.

Player WCT Pace Born Caps 100-Equiv
Christian Pulisic 199 1998 34 114
Josh Sargent 199 2000 12 115
Michael Bradley 196 1987 151 116
Timothy Weah 195 2000 8 115
Tyler Adams 186 1999 10 113
Weston McKennie 179 1998 19 114
Jozy Altidore 177 1989 115 117
DeAndre Yedlin 149 1993 62 116
Paul Arriola 113 1995 33 115
Jordan Morris 107 1994 39 118
Gyasi Zardes 106 1991 56 115
Reggie Cannon 104 1998 11 114
Brad Guzan 96 1984 64 107
Bobby Wood 95 1992 45 116
John Brooks 91 1993 38 116
Zack Steffen 90 1995 17 107
Alejandro Bedoya 87 1987 66 116
Kellyn Acosta 79 1995 23 115
Fabian Johnson 75 1987 57 116

 

USWNT Cap Totals

Last updated December 31, 2019

With Christie Rampone's retirement announcement, it's a good time to look at what 100 caps means for the USWNT.

While the chaotic games-per-year for the USWNT scheduling stands out, it's also worth noting the USWNT's IPC is significantly higher than the USMNT's (384 to 284). Following the same standard of a player needing to play 40% of the available games from when they are 19-34 and 30% of games from 19-38 for goalkeepers, this is what the USWNT's top 50 WCTs would look like.

Player WCT Born 100-Equiv Caps
1. Kristine Lilly 287 1971 123 354
2. Christie Rampone 232 1975 134 311
3. Julie Foudy 221 1971 123 272
4. Joy Fawcett 216 1968 111 239
5. Mia Hamm 208 1972 132 275
6. Brandi Chastain 173 1968 111 192
7. Abby Wambach 166 1980 154 255
8. Tiffeny Milbrett 155 1972 132 204
9. Heather O'Reilly 153 1985 151 231
10. Kate Markgraf 152 1976 132 201
11. Michelle Akers 152 1966 102 155
12. Carla Overbeck 152 1968 111 168
13. Hope Solo 144 1981 140 202
14. Shannon Boxx 142 1977 138 195
15. Briana Scurry 140 1971 123 173
16. Shannon MacMillan 128 1974 138 176
17. Cindy Parlow 118 1978 134 158
18. Carin Gabarra 116 1965 101 117
19. Heather Mitts 102 1978 134 137
20. Tisha Venturini 95 1973 140 132
21. Cat Whitehill 93 1982 144 134
22. Lorrie Fair 90 1978 134 120
23. Lauren Holiday 88 1987 151 133
24. Aly Wagner 85 1980 154 131
25. Lindsay Tarpley 84 1983 148 125
26. Angela Hucles 81 1978 134 109
27. Tiffany Roberts 80 1977 138 110
28. Rachel Van Hollebeke 75 1985 151 113
29. Lori Chalupny 70 1984 150 106
30. Linda Hamilton 66 1969 124 82

A little bit of reshuffling, especially with the more recent players taking a nerf hit but nothing that just flips the list upside down. Here are the top active players and their current pace.

Player WCT Born 100-Equiv Caps
1. Carli Lloyd 204 1982 144 294
2. Mallory Pugh 179 1998 147 63
3. Alex Morgan 160 1989 150 169
4. Tobin Heath 146 1988 151 168
5. Lindsey Horan 143 1994 148 86
6. Crystal Dunn 129 1992 151 104
7. Julie Ertz 127 1992 151 102
8. Becky Sauerbrunn 125 1985 151 177
9. Christen Press 120 1988 151 138
10. Morgan Gautrat 120 1993 152 87
11. Megan Rapinoe 119 1985 151 168
12. Kelley O'Hara 114 1988 151 131
13. Amy Rodriguez 106 1987 151 132
14. Alyssa Naeher 105 1988 139 63

Top 100 American Goalkeepers - February 2017

It's been a while since we've had top 100 rankings so it's about time we reviewed the hierarchy. Hopefully we can take a look at the women's side soon once some info on who is being invited into camps comes out.

Winter rankings are tough for domestic players as the offseason plays a bigger role in a goalkeeper's development than we're aware of. We know for the most part where goalkeepers left off last fall but we don't know how they've tweaked their game over the last few months. So think of these ranking as more as guidelines this time around.

You can also view the top 100 history, dating back for almost four years if you just love colored spreadsheets.
 

1. Brad Guzan, 32 - Middlesbrough (England.1)
2. Tim Howard, 37 - Colorado Rapids (USA.1)
3. Tyler Deric, 28 - Houston Dynamo (USA.1)
4. Bill Hamid, 26 - DC United (USA.1)
5. Jimmy Maurer, 29 - New York Cosmos (USA.2)
6. David Bingham, 27 - San Jose Earthquakes (USA.1)
7. Steve Clark, 30 - AC Horsens (Denmark.1)
8. Tim Melia, 29 - Sporting Kansas City (USA.1)
9. Luis Robles, 32 - New York Red Bulls (USA.1)
10. Joe Willis, 28 - Houston Dynamo (USA.1)

Bill says: I'm sure the biggest head scratcher on this list is Tyler Deric at number three. He's had limited exposure in the media with injury issues last year, but if he can stay healthy - and get a decent team in front of him - he can make a splash on the goalkeeper scene. Cosmos fans should be happy to see Maurer return although being in NASL hasn't historically been helpful in moving goalkeepers to a national team camp. Steve Clark hasn't started for AC Horsens yet but one of the worst defensive teams in Denmark could certainly use the boost.
 

11. Alex Horwath, 29 - SK Brann (Norway.1)
12. Joe Bendik, 27 - Orlando City SC (USA.1)
13. Nick Rimando, 37 - Real Salt Lake (USA.1)
14. William Yarbrough, 27 - Leon (Mexico.1)
15. Stefan Frei, 30 - Seattle Sounders (USA.1)
16. Brian Rowe, 28 - Los Angeles Galaxy (USA.1)
17. Evan Bush, 30 - Montreal Impact (USA.1)
18. Ethan Horvath, 21 - Club Brugge (Belgium.1)
19. Chris Seitz, 29 - FC Dallas (USA.1)
20. Matt Pickens, 34 - Tampa Bay Rowdies (USA.2)

Bill says: Horvath continues to move up the list and should crack the top ten by the end of the year. Alex Horwath is sat quietly as Brann's backup last year but I'd love to see him get some more games under his belt. Bendik had somewhat of a mixed season last year, with positives movements spliced with disappointing goals. It's taken him a little longer than some would like but hopefully Bendik has his feet under him now to have a complete season.
 

21. Jeff Attinella, 28 - Portland Timbers (USA.1)
22. Clint Irwin, 27 - Toronto FC (USA.1)
23. Matt Pyzdrowski, 30 - Helsingborg IF (Sweden.1)
24. Patrick McLain, 28 - Minnesota United FC (USA.1)
25. Sean Johnson, 27 - New York City FC (USA.1)
26. Zac MacMath, 25 - Colorado Rapids (USA.1)
27. Austin Guerrero, 27 - FC Alianza (Panama.1)
28. Matt Lampson, 27 - Chicago Fire (USA.1)
29. Quentin Westberg, 30 - FC Tours (France.2)
30. Andrew Dykstra, 31 - Sporting Kansas City (USA.1)

Bill says: Attinella, McLain, MacMath, and Dykstra are all goalkeepers I'd like to see get more opportunities but they're currently playing second fiddle, with some being closer to their respective starting goalkeeper than others. Mexican-American goalkeeper Austin Guerrero heads to Panama after an odd interview with ESPN last summer. Sean Johnson could have a better year in New York but he doesn't have a lot too build off of from Chicago.
 

31. Ryan Meara, 26 - New York Red Bulls (USA.1)
32. Bryan Meredith, 27 - Seattle Sounders (USA.1)
33. Jon Kempin, 23 - Free Agent (None)
34. Brendan Moore, 24 - Torquay United FC (England.5)
35. Alec Kann, 26 - Atlanta United (USA.1)
36. Bobby Shuttleworth, 29 - New England Revolution (USA.1)
37. Akira Fitzgerald, 29 - Free Agent (None)
38. David Meves, 27 - Free Agent (None)
39. Mitch Hildebrandt, 28 - FC Cincinnati (USA.3)
40. John McCarthy, 24 - Philadelphia Union (USA.1)

Bill says: Don't be surprised if Shuttleworth sits a majority of the season. New England wants to return to the playoffs so if they need to change things up, it may be in the goalkeeping department with Cody Cropper. Alec Kann finally gets a starting job in Atlanta, until Brad Guzan shows up this summer. It looks like Jon Kempin isn't returning to SKC but no word on where the youngster will land.


41. Devala Gorrick, 29 - St. Louis FC (USA.3)
42. Evan Newton, 28 - Sacramento Republic (USA.3)
43. Jon Busch, 40 - Indy Eleven (USA.2)
44. John Berner, 26 - Colorado Rapids (USA.1)
45. Brad Stuver, 25 - Columbus Crew (USA.1)
46. Matt Van Oekel, 30 - Real Salt Lake (USA.1)
47. Brad Knighton, 32 - New England Revolution (USA.1)
48. Josh Wicks, 33 - IK Sirius (Sweden.1)
49. Josh Saunders, 35 - Orlando City SC (USA.1)
50. Dan Kennedy, 34 - Los Angeles Galaxy (USA.1)

Bill says: Jon Busch playing at 40 is an incredible feat, something that is often taken for granted. Josh Saunders heads south after NYC is going to go with Sean Johnson. I suppose he realized that if he's going to be second string, he might as well do it on the beach. Josh Wicks slides over to newly promoted IK Sirius. Promoted Swedish teams have finished around mid-table in the past so he's lined up to have a very influential season.
 

51. Richard Sanchez, 22 - Tampico Madero (Mexico.2)
52. Jesse Gonzalez, 21 - FC Dallas (USA.1)
53. Jon Dawson, 25 - Free Agent (None)
54. Trevor Spangenberg, 25 - Puerto Rico FC (USA.2)
55. Brandon Miller, 27 - OC Blues FC (USA.3)
56. Chris Konopka, 31 - Free Agent (None)
57. Kyle Zobeck, 27 - New York Cosmos (USA.2)
58. Nathan Stockie, 27 - Free Agent (None)
59. Diego Restrepo, 29 - Free Agent (None)
60. Scott Angevine, 27 - Free Agent (None)

Bill says: There was a time where Richard Sanchez was getting all the press and Jesse Gonzalez was an afterthought. Now a few years later, it's not clear what the plan is for Sanchez, who has had zero professional starts in Mexico, while Gonzalez continues to grow with FC Dallas. A number of free agents here but also a few likely calling it quits if they can't find a club soon.
 

61. Will Dieterich, 29 - IF Grótta (Iceland.2)
62. Josh Ford, 29 - San Antonio FC (USA.3)
63. Carl Woszczynski, 28 - Phoenix Rising (USA.3)
64. Ryan Taylor, 26 - Richmond Kickers (USA.3)
65. Kris Devaux, 25 - Free Agent (None)
66. Brian Holt, 28 - New York Cosmos (USA.2)
67. Cody Laurendi, 28 - Oklahoma City Energy FC (USA.3)
68. Brian Sylvestre, 24 - North Carolina FC (USA.3)
69. Zac Lubin, 27 - Free Agent (None)
70. Charlie Lyon, 24 - Free Agent (None)

Bill says: Charlie Lyon was training with Minnesota United but they seem to be leaning another way. He has Seattle 2 experience so I imagine he'll land somewhere. Brian Sylvestre is one of the lucky, young goalkeepers who has a team backing him at the starting spot.
 

71. Trey Mitchell, 25 - Pittsburgh Riverhounds (USA.3)
72. Cody Mizell, 25 - Charlotte Independence (USA.3)
73. Sebastian Evers, 26 - Miami FC (USA.2)
74. Adam Grinwis, 24 - Free Agent (None)
75. Andre Rawls, 27 - New York City FC (USA.1)
76. Spencer Richey, 24 - Vancouver Whitecaps (USA.1)
77. Rafael Diaz, 25 - New York Red Bulls II (USA.3)
78. Justin Luthy, 25 - Colorado Springs Switchbacks (USA.3)
79. Matt Bersano, 24 - Free Agent (None)
80. CJ Cochran, 25 - Oklahoma City Energy FC (USA.3)

Bill says: I had originally taken Rawls off the list a few months back as I thought he had moved on but he's still grinding away. More draft picks don't make it into their third year than do so he's doing well for himself. Trey Mitchell spent the last couple years in the MLS Goalkeeper Pool and has finally found a team to sign him on. Richey and Diaz also are success stories that may have a quiet year in 2017, but are set up to be worth the wait down the line.
 

81. Cody Cropper, 24 - New England Revolution (USA.1)
82. Tyler Miller, 23 - Seattle Sounders (USA.3)
83. Alexandros Tabakis, 24 - Atlanta United (USA.1)
84. Travis Worra, 23 - DC United (USA.1)
85. Ciaran Nugent, 25 - Sligo Rovers (Ireland.1)
86. Eric Osswald, 25 - Free Agent (None)
87. Earl Edwards, 25 - Orlando City SC (USA.1)
88. Daniel Schmidt, 25 - Matsumoto Yamaga FC (Japan.2)
89. Andrew Tarbell, 23 - San Jose Earthquakes (USA.1)
90. Kyle Renfro, 24 - Free Agent (None)

Bill says: Cody Cropper is making a name for himself in preseason and while some will says "He's USYNT, of course he's known" he wasn't exactly having a successful time overseas. I interviewed Nugent about life in Ireland recently. Perhaps we will see Tarbell get more than 45 minutes this year, with Bingham having a strong possibility of going to the Gold Cup.
 

91. Devin Perales, 23 - Free Agent (None)
92. Zack Steffen, 21 - Columbus Crew (USA.1)
93. Keith Cardona, 24 - Indy Eleven (USA.2)
94. Eric Klenofsky, 22 - DC United (USA.1)
95. Josh Cohen, 24 - Phoenix Rising (USA.3)
96. Jeff Gal, 23 - Lidköpings FK (Sweden.4)
97. Alex Bono, 22 - Toronto FC (USA.1)
98. Calle Brown, 24 - Houston Dynamo (USA.1)
99. Tomas Gomez, 23 - Rochester Rhinos (USA.3)
100. Kris Schultz, 24 - Canterbury United (New Zealand.1)

Bill says: Steffen could find himself into a starting gig very soon, as the position is still open. Klenofsky has been in the press most recently but other goalkeepers like Bono and Cardona have shown positives signs but still have room to grow.

How Important Is the MLS Superdraft for Goalkeepers?

cover photo by Andy Mead

The 2017 MLS Draft wrapped up last week and teams are racing to fill out their varsity roster, as well as sorting out who will spend the year with their USL affiliate. Depending on how much they want to stock up, each team is needing anywhere from three to six goalkeepers. The past month has seen scouting reports, projections, and several write-ups for recent senior graduates and possible roster signees, but for all the fanfare surrounding the rookies, it's no secret it wears off quickly.

Already we've seen two goalkeepers from the 2016 class - Ryan Herman and Chris Froschauer - be dropped by the team that drafted them without much of a word about it. I suppose "sophomore season" narratives aren't as engaging to readers but perhaps there are better options for MLS teams finding a goalkeeper.

 

MLS's Search for Starting Goalkeepers

Over the last twenty years multiple teams have brought in an older goalkeeper from Europe or South America. Goalkeepers are known for their longevity so signing a goalkeeper late into his career can still give the team four to five years to work with. There's no denying how excited fans get when they hear marquee names attached to the league, like the ongoing rumor of Iker Casillas coming over.

The disappointing reality is that MLS teams simply can't (or shouldn't) chase elite goalkeepers at this time. If salary cap or designated player rules get tweaked in the future, MLS teams might be able to spend more freely on the last line of defense. Until then, it doesn't make sense for MLS to spend millions on a position that could conceivably make zero meaningful contributions in a game. There's a reason why there has only ever been one designated player that was a goalkeeper, and it just happens to be the most iconic American goalkeeper of all-time.

Alternatively, every team would love to sign a homegrown goalkeeper and develop him to the point where he eventually takes over as their starter. There are several incentives for signing a young prospect. Fans are always buzzing over an academy player joining the first team, there is no salary cap hit if a player is under a homegrown contract, and signing a player that young gives the team more control over the player's development. Or so we would think. The truth is homegrown goalkeepers have been scarce since their beginnings, with the league only signing 11 since 2008.

As of right now, there are no signs that teams will start signing more goalkeepers as HGPs. Currently they're more than content to let them develop in the college game. Some MLS teams will even push for young players to sign with their USL affiliate, in order to not have to pay more with an MLS contract, even if it doesn't count against the salary cap.

Some teams have looked abroad to sign a young goalkeeper, also at a low price. New York City signed Norwegian YNT goalkeeper Eirik Johansen back in 2015 as a 22 year old and LA Galaxy also signed Clément Diop, a 23 year old French goalkeeper last year. However these are less seen than homegrowns, due to the numerous difficulties in bringing in a foreigner at such a young age.

While some are quick to dismiss the college draft, at the end of the day it's the best cost-effective route for getting goalkeepers into the league. Foreigners (that are worth bringing in) are going to cost more than an American goalkeeper. Vancouver's Danish goalkeeper David Ousted makes $360,000 while Tim Melia is only at $150,000, yet no one would say Ousted is twice the goalkeeper as Melia. Even if your starter is not going to be an American, you will need to save money on the backup, which likely will be a domestic goalkeeper from the college game. 

It should be noted that there are some examples of college grads making it into MLS that aren't American - most notably Andre Blake (UConn, Jamaica) and Bouna Coundoul (Albany, Senegal) - but most will be domestic players. In fact if a college grad isn't American, it's all the more unlikely for a team to use an international slot on a player that's not going to see the field for some time. 

 

Getting the Most Out of the College Game

For the rest of the article, this document is referenced. I listed every SuperDraft pick, combine invite (dating back to 2003), Generation Adidas signing, and homegrown goalkeeper. Some fun stats are scattered throughout the doc. 

Figure 1 - Includes drafted, homegrowns, and Generation Adidas goalkeepers. Essentially all goalkeepers that would be considered a prospect.

Figure 1 - Includes drafted, homegrowns, and Generation Adidas goalkeepers. Essentially all goalkeepers that would be considered a prospect.

Figure 2 - The "1995 draft" is the inaugural draft, which was a little under half of college graduates but accurately occurred prior to the 1996 season The "1996 draft" is the college draft, also before the 1996 season.

Figure 2 - The "1995 draft" is the inaugural draft, which was a little under half of college graduates but accurately occurred prior to the 1996 season The "1996 draft" is the college draft, also before the 1996 season.

The first question we need to answer is about the draft's relevancy. Is the draft merely there to fill out the roster or can it produce starters in the league as well?

Splitting the league's all-time goalkeeper pool into two camps, we start to see how important American development has been for MLS goalkeepers. Only 14% of all MLS starts have been from a goalkeeper who wasn't draft-eligible. These are mostly foreigners who played in another country, although there are some Americans skipped the draft to go pro (Friedel and Keller, for example). The other 86% of starts have been from draft-eligible prospects (college grads, Generation Adidas, and homegrown players). Again, the cost-effectiveness of the college game has played a large part in the league's goalkeeper history. Interestingly enough, 25% of starts have come from undrafted - but could have been drafted - goalkeepers, meaning that undrafted goalkeepers have almost been twice as involved in the league as imported talent.

Knowing there is talent in every draft class, now we are left wondering just how productive the draft is for teams. It's always tricky to predict who will or won't be a potential starter but clearly some teams have done better than others. For example, New England being unable to convert nine prospects into anything worthwhile isn't good. Sporting Kansas City and Colorado have also struggled to find a good fit as well. (See figure 1)

One starting point is comparing MLS starts of young prospects versus undrafted goalkeepers. For this exercise, goalkeepers like Jorge Campos or Brad Friedel will not be included because they weren't draft eligible. (See figure 2)

Looking at the first few years, MLS was getting it right for the most part. The inaugural draft missed some notable keepers with Scott Garlick (237 appearances), Pat Onstad (223), Mike Ammann (125), and Marcus Hahnemann (70) but after that, only Joe Cannon (342) and Preston Burpo (57) made waves in the league.

The main reason is likely that MLS only had 10-12 teams for the first decade, so they only had to scout the best of the best. There wasn't a need to be thorough because there was only so much room for goalkeepers. The best goalkeepers stood out in college and that was all that mattered. Teams held only two goalkeepers (around 20-25 goalkeeping spots in the league), as opposed to now where teams will field two to three times as many, with USL affiliates bolstering the number. As MLS started to expand, more slots started to open up to the point where we now see ten goalkeepers being selected in the 2017 draft.

It's too early to say the fate of the last four classes, but we can start to see the how after 2003, overlooked goalkeepers started to trickle in. Perhaps the most bizarre year was 2008, when incoming players combined for zero appearances. Folklore legends Josh Lambo (U17, U20 starter), Dominic Cervi (USMNT call-up), and Brian Edwards (Wake Forest standout and NCAA Champion) were all outplayed for the likes of Tim Melia (Division II Lynn University, 56 appearances), Joe Nasco (Division III Birmingham-Southern, 4), and Lance Parker (Missouri State, 4).

Even through expansion and additional roster spot openings, the draft has showed that it can still produce the desired talent despite teams regularly missing it.

Click here for more stats on goalkeeper prospects.

 

Press Doesn't Equal Success

Every combine goalkeeper since 2003. Gm/yr was maxed out at 10 years, as seen with Perkins and Kennedy.

Every combine goalkeeper since 2003. Gm/yr was maxed out at 10 years, as seen with Perkins and Kennedy.

It's an odd to see goalkeepers that are good enough for MLS go untouched. Surely teams would notice if someone could cover the admittedly large gap from college to the professional game. What's even more odd is comparing how heralded goalkeepers don't fare that much better than the table scraps.

Counting the appearances between combine invites (and even throwing in homegrowns, GAs, and first round picks) versus every other goalkeeper that could be drafted (again, leaving out Campos, Friedel, and others), it's only 53-47% in favor of goalkeepers who are receiving media attention. There are actually more combine washouts (supposedly the cream of the crop) than goalkeepers who are overlooked yet make it into the league (43-33).

In the first decade, MLS could simply rely on word of mouth for the best goalkeepers coming out of the college game. Now that more teams are vying for the best goalkeepers - and more are getting selected in the draft - teams can't expect the press or the combine to do their research for them.

The touted goalkeepers don't end up fairing that much better than the rest of the bunch. Dating back to 2003, the current combine invite has a median career game appearances of zero. Still, some teams are confident in just accessing the four to six goalkeepers invited to the combine.

 

So How Important Is the College Draft?

Incredibly, but that doesn't mean the press surrounding the draft is equally valuable. The college game isn't at the point where teams can just throw a dart at a wall and find a starting goalkeeper. 76% of combine invites get drafted yet only 29% of combine invites end up being a success within the league. Even worse, only 18% of prospects end up being a success for a given team, meaning teams are moving on too quickly moving on from their draft picks. 

+/- =  tm.succ - (prospects - tm.succ) - (lg.succ - tm.succ) ... essentially counting all the times a team got it right, with a penalty for losing a good goalkeeper

+/- =  tm.succ - (prospects - tm.succ) - (lg.succ - tm.succ) ... essentially counting all the times a team got it right, with a penalty for losing a good goalkeeper

MLS's goalkeeping future is hard to predict. For teams trying to get the most out of their money, the emphasis should be on the academy to develop their goalkeepers. However, the majority of teams aren't as patient and resort to battling the rest of the league to find a promising goalkeeper in the draft. Perhaps we will see teams be more creative in how they bring in goalkeepers but that will likely be dependent on rule changes. Until then, it seems like the landscape isn't going to change and neither is the pipeline for American goalkeepers.

If teams aren't willing to craft their own goalkeeper, they have to do something to give themselves an advantage over their competitors. We know there is talent in the college game, it's just a matter of finding it early and not years after they graduate. As we enter 2017, teams are starting to separate themselves as to those who are content with listening to the noise, and those who know that finding a young goalkeeper starts before January.