U20 World Cup Advancing Odds and Elo Ratings

cover photo from US Soccer

Earlier this week the U20 World Cup draw was revealed, slotting twenty-four teams into six groups of four. The top two will automatically advance into the knockout stage while the top four 3rd place teams will fill out the final spots. USA was given a favorable group and are looking to follow up last cycle's positive performance, where they reached the final eight before losing to eventual champions Serbia in penalty kicks.

Below are advancement percentages and Elo ratings for all the U20 World Cup teams. With 16 of the 24 teams advancing, all the percentages are fairly high. Obviously these ratings should be taken with a grain of salt, as teams are quick to change from one year to the next, but they do offer a general guide to where teams are. The Elo ratings include all World Cup matches and date back to UEFA's first youth tournament in 1949.

Group F is the most even between all four teams, making first place the most reachable but also holding a realistic last place finish for all four teams. Groups A and D contain multiple powerhouses and will be a fight to the last minute in each of those matches.

The 2017 U20 World Cup, hosted in South Korea, starts May 20th. The US opens their first match against Ecuador on the 22nd at 4am eastern time.

Five Plays From Week Two You Probably Missed

While the first week was a lot of fun for almost every single MLS goalkeeper, the second week did not recapture the magic. We're still in the positives on good/bad plays from the goalkeeper pool, but there is definitely room for improvement heading into the third week.

There are technically more than five plays here but I grouped them into five categories to cheat you into reading more about goalkeepers.

Check out last week's Five Plays to learn even more about goalkeepers!

 

1. The Right and Wrong Way to Play Out of the Back

It's common for a goalkeeper to play an open teammate atop the 18 on a goal kick, like Howard does here. But for every time a goalkeeper plays short out of the back, he must know where the next pass (and the next next pass) is going. Howard doesn't think that far ahead and the pass returns to him, leading to a weak clearance. 13 seconds later, it's a shot on goal. If you don't know how you're going to play out of the back, you're playing against the odds.

Additionally, goalkeepers must give direction when playing to a teammate under any amount of pressure. If it's a long punt or the teammate has acres of space, it's understandable to stay quiet, but Howard has been quiet this season in helping his defenders play out of space. Look at these two images of Stefan Frei and Tim Howard. On the left, Frei has just rolled the ball out and is immediately pointing where to make the next pass. Even before his teammate receives it, Frei has shouted and pointed out the next move. (It's like playing FIFA, but in real life!) If Frei doesn't do this, his teammate must turn, pick his head up, survey the field, decide what to do, then play the ball. Instead, Frei has already revealed the answer to him.

In the contrasting image, Howard has swung the ball to his left but doesn't make a peep. Not surprisinginly, it's a turnover from 30 yards out and a chance on goal.

 

2. Protect Yourself

On a slotted ball, a goalkeeper should take his first step at a sharp angle to cut off the pass for two reasons. First, this not only protects himself by avoiding a collision, but it also makes it impossible for the striker to get to the ball first. Unfortunately Blake's play is a great example of what happens when you dive into a striker, instead in front of. Sometimes a goalkeeper has to go face-first into a battle, but this isn't one of those times. While some blame has gone to the Toronto FC player, Blake is equally in control to avoid the situation and keep both parties safe.

 

It's hard to be critical on a play when someone injuries himself but it's also a good learning point for young goalkeepers: never go to your knees. For those that remember Clint Dempsey's gift of a goal against England's Robert Green in the 2010 World Cup, anchoring your knee to the ground removes any chance for adjustment on a play. Even more importantly, going to your knees is it's incredibly unsafe. The jamming of knees into the ground can be dangerous in itself, but also when a goalkeeper anchors himself to the ground, he doesn't allow his body to bail on a play when it needs to. Here, Alvbage needs to be able to "bend and not break" on the collision from his teammate. Instead he is rooted like a tree and the cleats up tackle on his leg lands firm. If Alvbage employs a K shape, or just stays on his feet, he can probably roll out of this challenge unharmed. It's an unfortunate play, but one that goalkeepers must be aware of.

 

It's a great job by Steffen to cut out the pass, but again, this isn't a scenario where a goalkeeper has to put his body on the line. He keeps his head high and not behind his hands. It's an easy adjustment and a careless mistake. The Houston striker isn't even trying to make a serious attempt on the ball and he still shakes up Steffen. Steffen needs to protect his body (specifically his head, in this case) if he wants to stay in the league longer than a couple years.

 

3. When You Don't Want to Be Moving Forward

To succeed in MLS, you have to be good on 1v1s. Sometimes that means cutting down the angle quickly and other times that means being patient. In this play, Irwin can't cover the space. (To be fair, it's easy to say that now.) In deciding on whether to attack or not, the main reason for Irwin to stay on his line is the awkwardness of the ball's bounce. The more the ball is bouncing towards the striker, the easier it is for the goalkeeper to read the shot. Even if it is volleyed here, I think Irwin has a better chance at reacting to that, as opposed to trying to close down the space, which speed isn't Irwin's strength. If he stays back, maybe he can notice the slow header and get a fingertip on the ball to send it wide.

 

Frei gives us a great example of what can happen when you're patient. How many times have we seen a goalkeeper just rush out and try to starfish-save the header? Too many times. It's not the cleanest catch here but he makes it work.

 

4. They're Breakdance Fighting!

Diop following suit from last week's trend of "doing whatever it takes to make the save." While some may point to his positioning being a problem, I'm alright with it in this case. There's a big danger of having too much movement and not being able to cover the near post because of it. So I think this is a fair excuse on being "out of position". However I would like to see him drive his front leg a little more to cover the goal but it's the sweep-the-leg move that catches my eye. He doesn't hold on to the shot so he immediately finds a way to get the ball out. It's not textbook, but whatever it takes, do it.

On a side note, Brad Friedel with a great line on the live feed, “If you talk about embellishment, I think Diop has embellished this a bit.” It's hard to disagree here.

 

5. Can I Ask a Question?

Video starts at 1:28

The opening goal for Chicago was a result of remarkable refereeing. It looks like a pass to an offside player, except it wasn't a pass at all, as the replays show. Rimando is in an awkward place, as the defense has stopped altogether. Like the veteran he is, Rimando tries to play a mind game with Nikolic and get the call that isn't there. If Rimando can fool Nikolic into not finishing the play, then he ups his odds on making the save. It doesn't work here, but don't confuse this for thinking Rimando wasn't aware on what was going on. When your back is up against the wall, you have to get creative to get yourself out.

Five Plays From MLS' Opening Weekend You Probably Missed

Unlike 2016's opening weekend, MLS goalkeepers actually had a great start to the season. From penalty saves to free kick saves to being calm and composed in 1v1s, MLS's goalkeepers have set a great tone in week one. Even with all the coverage, there were still some interesting plays that need a second look. Here are five plays that you probably missed from MLS' opening weekend.

 

Hamid Handles Hot Potato

Video belongs to MLS. Clip used on this article: http://www.everybodysoccer.com/even-the-goalkeepers-like-to/2017/3/6/top-plays-from-mls-open-weekend-you-probably-missed

Hamid receives a backpass that's bouncing as high as his shoulders. You can tell the defender realizes it's such a poor pass that he doesn't even expect the ball to come back to him. Hamid handles the play without any stress by dropping it with his thigh and clearing it upfield, towards the sideline. It's not an impossible play, but even just looking at Hamid's posture after he clears the ball (steps back, swaying his arms, admiring his work) is the type of confidence you want from your goalkeeper when they're in a sticky situation. It's a fortunate drop to his teammate on the sideline but we can act like it was all part of the plan.

 

MacMath Puts on the Breaks

Video belongs to MLS. Clip used on this article: http://www.everybodysoccer.com/even-the-goalkeepers-like-to/2017/3/6/top-plays-from-mls-open-weekend-you-probably-missed

Bunbury is expecting to get the corner here but MacMath tricks him into letting it go out for a goal kick. It's a little awkward but MacMath shows he is in complete control of his body here. It's not a reckless challenge, but rather, it's perfectly calculated by MacMath. Even if Bunbury tries to put it on frame, MacMath still has the net covered. It's the smartest play I've seen from MacMath since he's been in the league.

 

Robles Assembles Red Bulls

Video belongs to MLS. Clip used on this article: http://www.everybodysoccer.com/even-the-goalkeepers-like-to/2017/3/6/top-plays-from-mls-open-weekend-you-probably-missed

This is immediately following the first goal by the Red Bulls, making it a 1-1 game in the 76th minute. Leading up to this point, it's been a game that both teams have a right to claim and one I was expecting to finish in a 1-1 tie. Atlanta is playing at home for the franchise's first game ever so to leave with a point would honestly be great for New York. However, a tie isn't enough for Robles and he runs 60 yards up field (you can tell he is on Atlanta's side of the field with the lines) to push his team to score another goal. It's rare to see goalkeepers run up to celebrate with their team, but that's not Robles' point in gathering the team. I doubt he said anything earth shattering, but the action speaks volumes. He wants to win, not tie, and now the rest of the team believes it too. New York would go on to win 2-1.

 

Frei Not Bothered by Rules of the Game

Video belongs to MLS. Clip used on this article: http://www.everybodysoccer.com/even-the-goalkeepers-like-to/2017/3/6/top-plays-from-mls-open-weekend-you-probably-missed

The ball trickles out of bounds before the cross, which even Frei calls for. Frei probably hears the whistle blown before the shot is taken, but no matter. He's up to the task. It's a great save that unfortunately doesn't count for anything, but it sends a great message to both Houston and Seattle. While the scoreline doesn't change by the final whistle, it's this type of mindset that led Frei to make that save in the MLS final.

 

Just Like Playing FIFA

Video belongs to MLS. Clip used on this article: http://www.everybodysoccer.com/even-the-goalkeepers-like-to/2017/3/6/top-plays-from-mls-open-weekend-you-probably-missed

Not something I'd recommend for any goalkeeper but I do appreciate the creativity. Melia doesn't want to risk the handball outside the box and somehow manages to sneak himself out of the situation. I don't know what exactly there is to take from this outside of witnessing the entire SKC fanbase holding their breath at the same time. I do like that Melia puts himself in a position to clear the ball away and not just retreat to the goal.

Player Journal: Bobby Edwards - March 2017

After taking a medical redshirt with Saint Joseph's last year, you've transferred to Monmouth University. A transfer process typically dates back some time so walk us through the timeline of transferring to Monmouth.

Our season at Saint Joseph’s came to a disappointing close - we failed to make the playoffs after a 3-0 start in conference. Typically, in the A-10 conference, winning 4 of 8 conference games is a guaranteed playoff spot berth, so to go from 3-0 to 3-5 and fail to make playoffs was crushing for everyone. Things just went wrong and went wrong fast - we were never able to figure them out in time to save the season. This is especially difficult to watch from the bench because, as much as you can help cultivate a positive team environment, you can’t truly help produce on the field.

Once the season came to a close, I had time to reflect on where I was in my life and who I wanted to become both on and off the field. It felt as though my life was stagnant -- that I wasn’t progressing in my soccer career and that the school itself wasn’t a good fit for me. I came to a point where I felt a change was necessary not just to progress on the field but to be happier as a person.

Eric Klenofsky (left) with Bobby Edwards

Eric Klenofsky (left) with Bobby Edwards

My roots are in the culture of North Jersey, and I wanted to come back home. So once I got my release from SJU, I began looking around at New Jersey based schools. I spoke with a few schools, but once I took my visit to Monmouth I knew this is where I needed to be. I already knew several of the guys from playing with them throughout my youth career, which made my transition much easier. The coaching staff are great. Each of them are dedicated to this program and their passion for winning is something I share. One of my best friends is recent Monmouth goalkeeper standout Eric Klenofsky, who I owe a lot to both on the field and off. He’s been a great friend and mentor for me, so getting the opportunity to follow in his footsteps is amazing. Everyone here at Monmouth has been unbelievably welcoming to me, making me feel more at home than I could ever have imagined. I feel as though I have found a place where I can truly enjoy the rest of my college career both athletically and academically.

But what I will say on the topic of transferring is this: it’s scary. You’re giving up everything that’s familiar for something altogether unknown. You’re leaving a comfort zone and pushing yourself to enter a new environment where there’s no certainty about what’s going to happen. It’s a nerve-wracking gamble. Either it’s the right move or it’s the wrong move, and if it turns out to be the wrong move, there’s no taking it back.

For me, it came down to not wanting to be haunted later in life by “what could have been.” When the day comes to hang up my cleats, I want to know that I did everything I possibly could have to chase my dream. 

 

I think there's a perception that a player only leaves a school if they hate every aspect of that school, which doesn't seem to be your case. What stands out about your time at SJU?

Transferring was one of the most difficult decisions I have had to make so far in my life – a choice that actually kept me up at night. Over the course of two and a half years at Saint Joe’s I created friendships that I will have for the rest of my life. It was difficult to leave my teammates, because when you are on a team, your teammates become like a second family. It hurt me leaving the family and I know it probably hurt them. But I left them on the best terms possible, and they all seemed to understand that this was a choice I needed to make.

One of the biggest things that stands out to me from SJU is a funny story about my roommate, teammate and best friend Tom Santilli. Tom is from Connecticut (otherwise known as the countryside), where last summer he purchased two baby ducklings from a farm around his house. On August 11th, we report for preseason and move into our Philadelphia house, where I’m greeted by Tom and his two ducklings. In between our three sessions a day, Tom and I would go back to the house where we would take care of these two little ducklings, all preseason long. So, there I was, part-time goalkeeper, part-time step-father to a pair of ducklings.

 

Last we heard, you were rehabbing your foot. What's the status there and how has the detour affected your mental approach to the game, if at all?

I am (knock on wood) back to full health with my foot. As a preventative measure, I continue to take special precautions and treatments such as wearing special footwear inserts, using a bone stimulator, and taking calcium supplements, etc. The big challenge now is the mental one, of feeling confident that my foot will support me, and with each passing day of practice this confidence increases. I’ve been beyond blessed to have my athletic trainer at Monmouth, Aaron Bottinick. He’s always there for me, providing support and treatment and going the extra mile to make sure I stay healthy.

The biggest takeaway I’ve gotten from these injuries is that each day I take the field, I’ve been given a blessing. To truly appreciate something, sometimes you’ve got to spend some time apart from it. Being forced to sit on the sideline and watch others play the sport I love - although awful in the moment - gave me a deeper sense of appreciation for the game.