Projecting the Top 100 American Goalkeepers for the 2022 World Cup

cover photo belongs to the Denver Post

Back in 2015, Everybody Soccer predicted the 2018 depth chart for American goalkeeping. For predictions three years out, they did about as well as you would expect. Reviewing the predictions, there were some significant errors.

Predicting an aging goalkeeper's descent is anyone's best guess. Josh Wicks and Jon Busch were great examples of more goalkeepers who proved they had more gas in the tank than expected. Nick Rimando was also much too low on the list. As for young goalkeepers, they were largely underrated. Steffen and Horvath were far too low and are already in the national team picture while Kempin, McMath and Meara were too high. Overall, most of the names were in the right room, but it was the order that was the issue.

For the 2022 projections, the first hurdle is drawing a line on who will and won't be retired. Goalkeepers can certainly have longer careers, but currently MLS only has three goalkeepers over 35 years old. It's unlikely many will play that long but Brad Guzan and Tim Melia have the inside track at the moment. Hopefully Stefan Frei (36 by the 2022 World Cup), Steve Clark (36), and Bobby Shuttleworth (35) will all still be playing but it'll require a strong commitment from them to stay in the game. And of course there will likely be a young hotshot who is 15 or 16 right now, but will be training with a top club by the time they turn 20 or 21. Perhaps Nicolas Defreitas-Hansen at Everton or Quantrell Jones?

Many people are claiming the goalkeeper position for the USMNT is absent of any meaningful competition heading towards 2022. On the contrary, there are a number of outstanding prospects that are on pace to challenge for the number one spot. It could conceivably be the tightest goalkeeping competition the USMNT has ever witnessed with no clear standout but a number of quality goalkeepers vying for minutes.

Understanding that five years is a long time and anything can happen between now and then, here are 100 American goalkeepers to keep an eye out over the next five years.

1. Ethan Horvath, 27 - Club Brugge (Belgium.1)
2. Abraham Romero, 24 - Pachuca (Mexico.1)
3. Zack Steffen, 27 - Columbus Crew (USA.1)
4. Eric Lopez, 23 - Los Angeles Galaxy II (USA.3)
5. Jeff Caldwell, 26 - Virginia (USA.N)
6. Brandon Austin, 23 - Tottenham (England.1)
7. Ben Lundgaard, 26 - Virginia Tech (USA.N)
8. JT Marcinkowski, 25 - Georgetown (USA.N)
9. Tim Melia, 35 - Sporting Kansas City (USA.1)
10. Will Pulisic, 24 - Duke (USA.N)

Bill says: Of any American goalkeeper, Horvath is easily playing at the highest level and the dividends are sure to pay off. Romero will likely end up getting cap-tied with Mexico, but for the moment he's still available for the USMNT, barring a one-time switch to play for the US. Caldwell, Lundgaard, Marcinkowski, and Pulisic lead a very strong collegiate group and are already ready to report to duty.

11. Eric Klenofsky, 27 - DC United (USA.1)
12. Jesse Gonzalez, 27 - FC Dallas (USA.1)
13. Bill Hamid, 31 - DC United (USA.1)
14. Jon Kempin, 29 - Los Angeles Galaxy (USA.1)
15. Joe Bendik, 33 - Orlando City SC (USA.1)
16. John McCarthy, 30 - Philadelphia Union (USA.1)
17. Brendan Moore, 30 - Rochdale (England.3)
18. Paul Christensen, 26 - University of Portland (USA.N)
19. Brad Guzan, 37 - Atlanta United (USA.1)
20. Cody Cropper, 29 - New England Revolution (USA.1)

Bill says: With all the instability in LA and DC, Kempin and Klenofsky are in great positions to take over their respective MLS sides in the next year or two. It sounds like Bill Hamid isn't re-signing with DC United and is headed towards Europe for 2018. Unfortunately he'll be on the wrong side of 30 by the time the next cycle comes around. Of course any goalkeeper can play at 31, but it's a little more of an uphill climb, especially for a goalkeeper who has struggled to stay healthy. Brendan Moore has yet to be a part of a winning team overseas but he's always been a commanding force in the box and it's why he's finding work in England.

21. Richard Sanchez, 28 - Chicago Fire (USA.1)
22. Alex Bono, 28 - Toronto FC (USA.1)
23. Adam Grinwis, 30 - St. Louis FC (USA.3)
24. Tyler Miller, 29 - Seattle Sounders (USA.3)
25. Bobby Edwards, 26 - Monmouth (USA.N)
26. Wade Hamilton, 27 - Portland Timbers II (USA.3)
27. Parker Siegfried, 25 - Ohio State (USA.N)
28. Zac MacMath, 30 - Colorado Rapids (USA.1)
29. Charlie Lyon, 30 - OC Blues FC (USA.3)
30. Spencer Richey, 30 - Vancouver Whitecaps (USA.1)

Bill says: It'll be an odd world where Zac MacMath isn't a young goalkeeper in MLS but 2022 will be just that. Alex Bono bounced back from a mediocre 2016 for a strong showing this year, getting the bulk of starting time in Toronto FC's historic run. With rumors that David Ousted isn't returning to Vancouver next year, Richey will throw his name into the hat for the starting spot in 2018. Lyon's lateral mobility makes him an interesting prospect moving forward and Richard Sanchez resurfaced in MLS this season, already owning a win under his belt.

31. Matt Bersano, 29 - San Jose Earthquakes (USA.1)
32. Todd Morton, 26 - Delaware (USA.N)
33. David Greczek, 27 - Sporting Kansas City (USA.1)
34. Kevin Silva, 24 - UCLA (USA.N)
35. Evan Louro, 26 - New York Red Bulls II (USA.3)
36. Ryan Meara, 31 - New York Red Bulls (USA.1)
37. Earl Edwards, 30 - Orlando City SC (USA.1)
38. Paul Blanchette, 28 - PEPO Lappeenranta (Finland.3)
39. Kyle Dal Santo, 27 - SIUE (USA.N)
40. Cody Mizell, 30 - Charlotte Independence (USA.3)

Bill says: The once heralded Ryan Meara could easily lose favor to up-and-coming goalkeeper Evan Louro, who skipped his last year at Michigan to pursue a career with RBNY. Blanchette has quietly earned 18 starts for third place PEPO. While Morton and Dal Santo are a little off the radar at the moment, they both possess the size and speed to excel at the next level, even if they don't hear their names called next SuperDraft. Kevin Silva is finishing his sophomore season with UCLA but don't expect him to stay all four years. He has the talent and prestige to follow in Louro's footsteps. And perhaps in 2022, FIFA will bump up Bersano's speed rating.

41. Benjamin Machini, 25 - RCD Mallorca (Spain.3)
42. Trevor Spangenberg, 31 - Puerto Rico FC (USA.2)
43. Brad Stuver, 31 - Columbus Crew (USA.1)
44. Travis Worra, 29 - DC United (USA.1)
45. Logan Ketterer, 28 - Columbus Crew (USA.1)
46. Adrian Zendejas, 26 - Sporting Kansas City (USA.1)
47. David Bingham, 32 - San Jose Earthquakes (USA.1)
48. Tyler Deric, 33 - Houston Dynamo (USA.1)
49. Brian Sylvestre, 29 - North Carolina FC (USA.3)
50. Andrew Tarbell, 28 - San Jose Earthquakes (USA.1)

Bill says: While the NASL may not be around by 2022, Spangenberg should be able to build off his strong performances with Puerto Rico to continue to compete for a starting spot somewhere. Similarly, Sylvestre has made positive strides with North Carolina FC and has past experiences in MLS that he may be able to build off of. Tarbell has played ten straight games for San Jose and is the frontrunner to start the 2018 season for the Earthquakes. With Deric's game built so much on his explosive reactions, it'll be interesting to see how he fares in his later years.

51. Bill Heavner, 28 - MLS Pool (USA.1)
52. Jake McGuire, 27 - Philadelphia Union (USA.1)
53. Jonathan Klinsmann, 25 - Hertha BSC (Germany.1)
54. Justin vom Steeg, 25 - Los Angeles Galaxy II (USA.3)
55. Tomas Gomez, 29 - Rochester Rhinos (USA.3)
56. Matt Turner, 28 - New England Revolution (USA.1)
57. Austin Rogers, 26 - FC Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia.1)
58. Sean Johnson, 33 - New York City FC (USA.1)
59. Eric Dick, 27 - Butler (USA.N)
60. Elliott Rubio, 25 - Utah Valley (USA.N)

Bill says: Vom Steeg has recently returned to California from playing abroad and LAG2 put him in goal quick, already earning four starts in the last month. Klinsmann is doing well to already be making inroads with Hertha Berlin. Rogers is taking an unconventional route by playing in Mongolia but he looks like he's getting his money's worth in the Eastern Hemisphere. Gomez has recently become a back-to-back USL Golden Glove winner.

61. Alec Kann, 31 - Atlanta United (USA.1)
62. Connor Sparrow, 28 - Real Salt Lake (USA.1)
63. Carlos dos Santos, 21 - Benfica (Portugal.1)
64. Nick Gardner, 26 - Denver (USA.N)
65. Matthew Jegier, 26 - Elon (USA.N)
66. Jimmy Hague, 27 - Michigan State (USA.N)
67. Michael Nelson, 27 - SMU (USA.N)
68. Bennett Sneddon, 25 - Los Angeles Galaxy II (USA.3)
69. Ryan Cretens, 26 - UNC Wilmington (USA.N)
70. Tim Dobrowolski, 28 - Louisville City FC (USA.3)

Bill says: Admittedly dos Santos is a bit of an surprise pick as he's currently the backup to the U17s. However it's hard not to see shades of David de Gea when you see the young Philadelphian move in goal. Dobrowolski played only two games in 2016 but did well to concede just 11 goals in his 12 appearances with Louisville this year. Garner continues to build off of last year's Goalkeeper of the Year performance in his conference, currently holding a .91 GAA. Young Galaxy goalkeeper Bennett Sneddon has room to grow but the twenty year old is developing well against USL competition.

71. Ben Hale, 24 - Furman (USA.N)
72. Andrew Putna, 27 - Real Monarchs (USA.1)
73. Andrew Shepherd, 27 - Western Michigan (USA.N)
74. Mason Stajduhar, 24 - Orlando City SC (USA.1)
75. Drake Callender, 24 - California (USA.N)
76. Trey Mitchell, 31 - Pittsburgh Riverhounds (USA.3)
77. Kris Devaux, 31 - Bryne FK (Norway.2)
78. Matt Lampson, 32 - Chicago Fire (USA.1)
79. Evan Finney, 27 - Penn State (USA.N)
80. Joe Willis, 33 - Houston Dynamo (USA.1)

Bill says: Hale had a wonderful start to the season, being named TopDrawerSoccer's national player of the week back in early September. Shepherd assisted the Michigan Bucks' US Open Cup run this spring, topping Indy Eleven to reach the third round. Mason Stajduhar is still searching for his first professional cap but he already has good experience with the U20s. Willis and Lampson will probably hold backup roles by 2022 but their consistency will be the main reason why they'll likely still be playing into their 30s.

81. William Yarbrough, 33 - Leon (Mexico.1)
82. Collin Partee, 27 - Loyola Marymount (USA.N)
83. Drew Romig, 24 - North Carolina (USA.N)
84. Josh Cohen, 29 - Phoenix Rising (USA.3)
85. Keith Cardona, 29 - Indy Eleven (USA.2)
86. Kyle Morton, 28 - Rochester Rhinos (USA.3)
87. Mike Lansing, 28 - Aalborg BK (Denmark.1)
88. Jimmy Slayton, 24 - Hartford (USA.N)
89. Alex Kapp, 27 - Minnesota United FC (USA.3)
90. Jimmy Maurer, 34 - New York Cosmos (USA.2)

Bill says: Many people want Yarbrough to re-enter the USMNT goalkeeping scene, as he's currently sitting top five in saves and clean sheets in the Liga MX's spring season. Unfortunately he'll on the wrong side of 30 by the World Cup. Partee has an option of signing as a Timbers homegrown after this fall. Romig has split time with freshman Alec Smir and junior James Pyle, making the goalkeeper situation in Chapel Hill easily the most competitive in the country.

91. Luis Barraza, 25 - Marquette (USA.N)
92. John Berner, 31 - Colorado Rapids (USA.3)
93. Rafael Diaz, 30 - New York Red Bulls II (USA.3)
94. Kris Schultz, 29 - Canterbury United (New Zealand.1)
95. Dakota Havlick, 25 - Santa Clara (USA.N)
96. James Pyle, 26 - North Carolina (USA.N)
97. Jeff Attinella, 33 - Portland Timbers (USA.1)
98. Brian Rowe, 33 - Los Angeles Galaxy (USA.1)
99. Mark Pais, 31 - Toronto FC (USA.1)
100. Jon Busch, 45 - Indy Eleven (USA.2)

Bill says: Attinella and Rowe enter 2018 nearing, or at, their peak but they only combine for just 100 MLS appearances in their 13 seasons as a professional. (Attinella also has 52 appearances in NASL action.) Continued development is hard to come by for any goalkeeper this late into their career. Barraza has a possibility of an homegrown contract with Real Salt Lake, if the decide to go that direction with the Marquette goalkeeper. Jon Busch should be nearing 700 games played by 2022.

Top 40 Goalkeepers Under 24

There was only one goalkeeper in the 2016 edition of MLS's 24 Under 24, which was nice because sometimes there have been zero. So we'll take what we can get. 24 is typically not viewed as "young" for a field player but since goalkeepers take a little longer to develop, it's a fine gauge for them. Here are 40 American goalkeepers to keep an on over the next few years.

1. Ethan Horvath, 22 - Club Brugge (Belgium.1)
2. Jesse Gonzalez, 22 - FC Dallas (USA.1)
3. Zack Steffen, 22 - Columbus Crew (USA.1)
4. Abraham Romero, 19 - Pachuca (Mexico.1)
5. Eric Klenofsky, 22 - DC United (USA.1)
6. Richard Sanchez, 23 - Tampico Madero (Mexico.2)
7. Jeff Caldwell, 21 - Virginia (USA.N)
8. Will Pulisic, 19 - Dortmund (Germany.1)

Bill says: Well no surprise with the number one here. Typically if you get called up for a World Cup Qualifier as a 22 year old you're probably fairly decent. Gonzalez (still not cap-tied with Mexico, although most likely will be) and Steffen battle for the number two spot, depending on your preference. Both have shown positives and negatives and I wouldn't be surprised if Steffen outplayed Gonzalez at the end of the day. It's just too earlier to call it just yet. Romero has done well with Mexico's U20s in their World Cup run and could be a frustrating loss for the US in years to come. Klenofsky had surgery (MCL) at the end of April and his return date is unknown at this time. Pulisic is expected back at Duke this fall but is still currently with Dortmund's U19s. Theoretically he could sign back with Dortmund but there's no word of that yet. Lastly, Sanchez is a bit of an unknown. Mexican clubs haven't had the greatest track record when it comes to playing its youth goalkeepers but that doesn't necessarily mean he isn't developing. He was good at one point, but he's stayed hidden for the past couple years.

9. Alex Bono, 23 - Toronto FC (USA.1)
10. Alec Ferrell, 23 - Free Agent (None)
11. Wade Hamilton, 22 - Portland Timbers II (USA.3)
12. Andrew Tarbell, 23 - San Jose Earthquakes (USA.1)
13. Kevin Silva, 19 - UCLA (USA.N)
14. Bill Heavner, 23 - Minnesota United FC (USA.1)
15. Paul Blanchette, 23 - PEPO Lappeenranta (Finland.3)
16. Logan Ketterer, 23 - Columbus Crew (USA.1)

Bill says: A number of twenty-three year olds in this group. Bono is taking full advantage of his time with Toronto. Ferrell is has not technically signed with Minnesota United despite being drafted in January, after needing to sit for half the season, if not the entire year. Tarbell played only 45 minutes last year and two matches in the USL this year. For someone so highly touted, it's odd San Jose can't find him more playing time. Kevin Silva returns to UCLA for his sophomore year, after taking the starting spot from a returning senior last year. Heavner keeps the goalkeeper pool alive and is stationed with Minnesota for the time being. Blanchette has started four of six games for third place PEPO Lappeenranta.

17. Ben Lundgaard, 21 - Virginia Tech (USA.N)
18. David Greczek, 22 - Sporting Kansas City (USA.1)
19. JT Marcinkowski, 20 - Georgetown (USA.N)
20. Justin Vom Steeg, 20 - Fortuna Düsseldorf (Germany.2)
21. Paul Christensen, 21 - Portland (USA.N)
22. Carlos dos Santos, 16 - Benfica (Portugal.1)
23. Bobby Edwards, 21 - Monmouth (USA.N)
24. Parker Siegfried, 20 - Ohio State (USA.N)

Bill says: Lundgaard is spending this summer with the Red Bulls' PDL squad, who are known for producing standout goalkeepers, and has already impressed RBNY fans. JT Marcinkowski currently sits second to Klinsmann with the U20s but Georgetown fans are anixous to see the sophomore goalkeeper lead their team back to the NCAA tournament. Justin Vom Steeg is interested in resigning with Fortuna Düsseldorf but is currently out of contract. Paul Christensen has notched two starts with the Sounders U23s (PDL), allowing just one goal in the two games. Dos Santos was the backup goalkeeper during the U17s World Cup Qualifiers and is back with Benfica for the time being. Bobby Edwards joins Lundgaard with the U23 squad after transferring to Monmouth University while Siegfried spends his summer with NPSL side Asheville City Soccer Club.

25. Benjamin Machini, 20 - Barakaldo CF (Spain.3)
26. Matt Turner, 23 - New England Revolution (USA.1)
27. Connor Sparrow, 23 - Real Monarchs (USA.3)
28. Tim Dobrowolski, 23 - Louisville City FC (USA.3)
29. Eric Lopez, 18 - Los Angeles Galaxy II (USA.3)
30. Mike Lansing, 23 - Aalborg BK (Denmark.1)
31. Adrian Zendejas, 21 - Sporting Kansas City (USA.1)
32. Kyle Morton, 23 - Rochester Rhinos (USA.3)

Bill says: Machini finished his loan with Barakaldo and will return to RCD Mallorca. Tim Dobrowolski has already earned two save of the week awards (first and second) within USL play. Eric Lopez made his first professional start last month and while the 4-0 drumming to the OC Blues wasn't ideal, he rebounded well with a 2-1 win against the Red Bulls a week later. Lansing earned three starts for Danish premier club Aalborg BK, who finished 8th in the table. Morton also made his first professional start with the Rochester Rhinos in a comfortable 3-0 US Open Cup start.

33. Andrew Shepherd, 22 - Western Michigan (USA.N)
34. Todd Morton, 21 - Delaware (USA.N)
35. Mike Kirk, 23 - Rio Grande Valley FC (USA.3)
36. Michael Nelson, 22 - SMU (USA.N)
37. Evan Louro, 21 - New York Red Bulls II (USA.3)
38. Kyle Dal Santo, 22 - SIUE (USA.N)
39. Austin Pack, 23 - Puerto Rico FC (USA.2)
40. Jonathan Klinsmann, 20 - California (USA.N)

Bill says: Shepherd (Michigan Bucks), Morton (Ocean City Nor'easters), and Dal Santo (St. Louis FC U23s) are putting their summers to good use in the PDL. Evan Louro has been a polarizing figure over the past few years. A lackluster season with Michigan last year didn't inspire confidence but he's toned up and has taken his role at RBNY more seriously. His ceiling is up to him, as he carries a ton of untapped potential still. Jonathan Klinsmann received his fair share of backlash after a disappointing opener to the U20 World Cup, which I wrote about here.

Is Jonathan Klinsmann the Right Goalkeeper for the U20s?

Early Monday morning, the U20s kicked off their World Cup run with a dramatic 3-3 tie, leaning heavily on a 94th minute volley from Luca de la Torre. Despite the late game heroics, many pointed to Jonathan Klinsmann as the weak link of the team after conceding three goals. (Read BigSoccer's game day thread to hear fans go from awe to disgust in a matter of seconds.) There are many fans calling for Klinsmann's benching, while some seem to have been harboring their displeasure with the goalkeeper for some time.

Let's take a closer look at his performance before we dive into who should be the starting goalkeeper.

First Goal

You know a situation is bad when your main defender is in the process of starting his first of two somersaults. It's a tricky situation for Klinsmann because if he stays home, maybe he should have gone and vice versa. In these situations, the decision comes second to the execution. There's a right and wrong way to attack and there's a right and wrong way to stay back. It's not realistic to expect goalkeepers to know how everything is going to play out on 1v1s. Ultimately, they must make a decision and execute it as best they can.

Klinsmann decides to step to the ball and his approach is originally thought out well. He steps to the striker (second picture) as a touch on the ball is made, which is the exact time a goalkeeper should step. The longest amount of time a striker has before touching the ball is right after his preceding touch. The longer a goalkeeper waits to step after a touch, the closer the striker is to his next touch.

Building off the earlier point, Klinsmann's final execution is lacking. He makes up his mind very early to throw out a studs up one-footed tackle for an attacker who is going across Klinsmann's body. If Klinsmann throws his hands out low to his left, there's a high probability he knocks the ball away.

Additionally, Klinsmann is asking for a red card here. When accessing a referee's call on a play, a goalkeeper must limit the possibility of what a referee could call against them. Klinsmann does not receive a card on the play (personally the correct call) but it's very easy to see how a referee would give a red card to Klinsmann. Perhaps the touch doesn't lead to an open teammate and the striker goes to ground. We've all seen referees award red cards for similar plays and Klinsmann doesn't protect himself with an exposed one-footed slide that gets close to a scissor tackle.

It's an undesirable situation, but Klinsmann doesn't help himself as much as he could. A hands-led tackle likely stops the first goal and keeps the scoreline level.

Second Goal

This is a great example of how 1v1 situations can be drastically different from one to the next. The Ecuadorian striker takes a long touch but because of the defender staying in the picture (despite ultimately losing out) Klinsmann doesn't have a clear road to attack the ball. If the defender were to have an opportunity to clear the ball but only receive a tackle from Klinsmann, the chaos could very well backfire on the American defense.

Klinsmann's decision to stay home isn't necessarily wrong, but his execution is problematic again. He creeps up on the play in order to be ready to pounce on an extra touch but inadvertently puts him in a version of "no man's land". He is too far forward to give himself time to react but not far enough forward to cut down the angle to any real value.

Even more concerning, Klinsmann's feet go cold at the exact wrong time. Notice in pictures 3-6 how slow he is to move. The ball is not struck far from his body (the bending shot hits close to the middle of the net) yet his feet's loss of movement stops him from moving his upper body in time.

His weight is also too far back. (Picture 4 looks like he's sitting in an invisible chair.) The only movement he can do is a hopeful leg thrown forward, which is entirely the wrong motion needed. His body falls backwards, into his weight.

I'd like to see Klinsmann stay a step back here to give himself more time to react but the bigger issue is his feet. If his heels rest on the play (aka "cold feet") he makes the play ten times harder on himself. His upper body can move quicker if his feet are ready to spring but he's cemented himself in place. For a shot not hit far away from his body, it's a play that a goalkeeper of Klinsmann's caliber should be able to do more on.

Breakaway Save

For a game that was 2-2 with only 30 minutes left in it, it's hard to be critical of any save. Klinsmann forces the shooter to a take a shot into his body and the US were let off the hook for bad defending. However there are some worrying signs on the play.

The offside trap fails, as always, because of one defender. Unfortunately Klinsmann gives no verbal warning of the sneaky striker and appears to have no idea he's even there. Notice how Klinsmann goes to collect a long through ball only to realize there is a perfectly timed striker heading towards goal. (Second picture, Klinsmann is correcting his wrong step with his right foot. The misstep is displayed better in video.)

It's a fine save, but Klinsmann needs to keep an eye on backside runs to limit chances on goal. A goalkeeper should look to be preventative when dealing with shots and only have to make the saves when previous attempts of communication have failed.

Third Goal

Finally we arrive at Klinsmann's worst mistake. Needless to say it's a mistake that Klinsmann will be criticized for some time and honestly there is no protection for Klinsmann here. Some may argue that he shouldn't receive the back pass or that his left back should have opened up more for him, but the error is solely on Klinsmann. Players constantly receive undesirable situations but their redemption is rooted in if they made the best with what they could. Klinsmann, in contrast, makes a bad situation even worse three times over.

First, Klinsmann's starting touch is across his body with right foot (second picture). The awkward trap loses time for Klinsmann and sends out a loud alarm to defending attackers that the goalkeeper can't play with his left foot. A confident left footed trap dissolves the situation, despite little help from his teammates.

Klinsmann's second mistake is found in his following touch. Recognizing that he has no realistic options and is surrounded by yellow shirts, he must place the ball into the stands. Even if this results in a corner kick for Ecuador, at the very least the US could set up to protect the goal. Instead, Klinsmann tries to take another touch to round the first defender to little success.

Lastly, after Klinsmann has gifted the ball back into the opposition's possession, he panics in retreating to the goal. There is no time for Klinsmann to achieve better positioning. He must stand his ground and do what he can from there. The seven or eight backwards steps transform Klinsmann into the equivalent of a traffic cone. The shot is not struck far from Klinsmann (see last pictures) and if he does not backpedal, or at least limits the number of steps he takes, he can likely make the save. 

Perhaps the most frustrating part, Klinsmann looks completely defeated after the goal. His teammates already know he has messed up - everyone in the stadium knows in - there is no need to confirm a sense of disappointment in the play. There will be plenty of time to feel sorry about the mistake after the game. In the middle of turmoil, a team needs their goalkeeper to get them back on track, not mope alongside them.

Who Should Start for the U20s?

In true USYNT-form, we're left with one seasoned goalkeeper and a handful of untested backups. JT Marcinkowski has seen one game with the U20s in a throw away match, so it's hard to say how he would perform. For those who have watched him at Georgetown, he's performed very well but it's not necessarily a 1-to-1 transition to the U20s.

Ultimately there is a lot of information fans don't have. How does the player chemistry differ from Klinsmann to Marcinkowski? How did Klinsmann respond to the team after the game? In the next practice? Was the US's third goal a rally from the team's respect for Klinsmann? Has Marcinkowski put himself in a position with the team to confidently take over the starting spot? What do the coaches know about the goalkeepers that we don't? There are several questions we just don't have the answers for.

There's a strong possibility Klinsmann will be benched for the second game, but calling for it is admittedly based off a slice of information. Perhaps the bigger problem is that Marcinkowski hasn't had the opportunity to show his value. If we're worried that Klinsmann won't give his teammates confidence in the back, Marcinkowski's lack of game time doesn't solve that problem.

How Important Is the MLS Superdraft for Goalkeepers?

cover photo by Andy Mead

The 2017 MLS Draft wrapped up last week and teams are racing to fill out their varsity roster, as well as sorting out who will spend the year with their USL affiliate. Depending on how much they want to stock up, each team is needing anywhere from three to six goalkeepers. The past month has seen scouting reports, projections, and several write-ups for recent senior graduates and possible roster signees, but for all the fanfare surrounding the rookies, it's no secret it wears off quickly.

Already we've seen two goalkeepers from the 2016 class - Ryan Herman and Chris Froschauer - be dropped by the team that drafted them without much of a word about it. I suppose "sophomore season" narratives aren't as engaging to readers but perhaps there are better options for MLS teams finding a goalkeeper.

MLS's Search for Starting Goalkeepers

Over the last twenty years multiple teams have brought in an older goalkeeper from Europe or South America. Goalkeepers are known for their longevity so signing a goalkeeper late into his career can still give the team four to five years to work with. There's no denying how excited fans get when they hear marquee names attached to the league, like the ongoing rumor of Iker Casillas coming over.

The disappointing reality is that MLS teams simply can't (or shouldn't) chase elite goalkeepers at this time. If salary cap or designated player rules get tweaked in the future, MLS teams might be able to spend more freely on the last line of defense. Until then, it doesn't make sense for MLS to spend millions on a position that could conceivably make zero meaningful contributions in a game. There's a reason why there has only ever been one designated player that was a goalkeeper, and it just happens to be the most iconic American goalkeeper of all-time.

Alternatively, every team would love to sign a homegrown goalkeeper and develop him to the point where he eventually takes over as their starter. There are several incentives for signing a young prospect. Fans are always buzzing over an academy player joining the first team, there is no salary cap hit if a player is under a homegrown contract, and signing a player that young gives the team more control over the player's development. Or so we would think. The truth is homegrown goalkeepers have been scarce since their beginnings, with the league only signing 11 since 2008.

As of right now, there are no signs that teams will start signing more goalkeepers as HGPs. Currently they're more than content to let them develop in the college game. Some MLS teams will even push for young players to sign with their USL affiliate, in order to not have to pay more with an MLS contract, even if it doesn't count against the salary cap.

Some teams have looked abroad to sign a young goalkeeper, also at a low price. New York City signed Norwegian YNT goalkeeper Eirik Johansen back in 2015 as a 22 year old and LA Galaxy also signed Clément Diop, a 23 year old French goalkeeper last year. However these are less seen than homegrowns, due to the numerous difficulties in bringing in a foreigner at such a young age.

While some are quick to dismiss the college draft, at the end of the day it's the best cost-effective route for getting goalkeepers into the league. Foreigners (that are worth bringing in) are going to cost more than an American goalkeeper. Vancouver's Danish goalkeeper David Ousted makes $360,000 while Tim Melia is only at $150,000, yet no one would say Ousted is twice the goalkeeper as Melia. Even if your starter is not going to be an American, you will need to save money on the backup, which likely will be a domestic goalkeeper from the college game. 

It should be noted that there are some examples of college grads making it into MLS that aren't American - most notably Andre Blake (UConn, Jamaica) and Bouna Coundoul (Albany, Senegal) - but most will be domestic players. In fact if a college grad isn't American, it's all the more unlikely for a team to use an international slot on a player that's not going to see the field for some time. 

Getting the Most Out of the College Game

For the rest of the article, this document is referenced. I listed every SuperDraft pick, combine invite (dating back to 2003), Generation Adidas signing, and homegrown goalkeeper. Some fun stats are scattered throughout the doc. 

Figure 1 - Includes drafted, homegrowns, and Generation Adidas goalkeepers. Essentially all goalkeepers that would be considered a prospect.

Figure 2 - The "1995 draft" is the inaugural draft, which was a little under half of college graduates but accurately occurred prior to the 1996 season The "1996 draft" is the college draft, also before the 1996 season.

The first question we need to answer is about the draft's relevancy. Is the draft merely there to fill out the roster or can it produce starters in the league as well?

Splitting the league's all-time goalkeeper pool into two camps, we start to see how important American development has been for MLS goalkeepers. Only 14% of all MLS starts have been from a goalkeeper who wasn't draft-eligible. These are mostly foreigners who played in another country, although there are some Americans skipped the draft to go pro (Friedel and Keller, for example). The other 86% of starts have been from draft-eligible prospects (college grads, Generation Adidas, and homegrown players). Again, the cost-effectiveness of the college game has played a large part in the league's goalkeeper history. Interestingly enough, 25% of starts have come from undrafted - but could have been drafted - goalkeepers, meaning that undrafted goalkeepers have almost been twice as involved in the league as imported talent.

Knowing there is talent in every draft class, now we are left wondering just how productive the draft is for teams. It's always tricky to predict who will or won't be a potential starter but clearly some teams have done better than others. For example, New England being unable to convert nine prospects into anything worthwhile isn't good. Sporting Kansas City and Colorado have also struggled to find a good fit as well. (See figure 1)

One starting point is comparing MLS starts of young prospects versus undrafted goalkeepers. For this exercise, goalkeepers like Jorge Campos or Brad Friedel will not be included because they weren't draft eligible. (See figure 2)

Looking at the first few years, MLS was getting it right for the most part. The inaugural draft missed some notable keepers with Scott Garlick (237 appearances), Pat Onstad (223), Mike Ammann (125), and Marcus Hahnemann (70) but after that, only Joe Cannon (342) and Preston Burpo (57) made waves in the league.

The main reason is likely that MLS only had 10-12 teams for the first decade, so they only had to scout the best of the best. There wasn't a need to be thorough because there was only so much room for goalkeepers. The best goalkeepers stood out in college and that was all that mattered. Teams held only two goalkeepers (around 20-25 goalkeeping spots in the league), as opposed to now where teams will field two to three times as many, with USL affiliates bolstering the number. As MLS started to expand, more slots started to open up to the point where we now see ten goalkeepers being selected in the 2017 draft.

It's too early to say the fate of the last four classes, but we can start to see the how after 2003, overlooked goalkeepers started to trickle in. Perhaps the most bizarre year was 2008, when incoming players combined for zero appearances. Folklore legends Josh Lambo (U17, U20 starter), Dominic Cervi (USMNT call-up), and Brian Edwards (Wake Forest standout and NCAA Champion) were all outplayed for the likes of Tim Melia (Division II Lynn University, 56 appearances), Joe Nasco (Division III Birmingham-Southern, 4), and Lance Parker (Missouri State, 4).

Even through expansion and additional roster spot openings, the draft has showed that it can still produce the desired talent despite teams regularly missing it.

Click here for more stats on goalkeeper prospects.

Press Doesn't Equal Success

Every combine goalkeeper since 2003. Gm/yr was maxed out at 10 years, as seen with Perkins and Kennedy.

It's an odd to see goalkeepers that are good enough for MLS go untouched. Surely teams would notice if someone could cover the admittedly large gap from college to the professional game. What's even more odd is comparing how heralded goalkeepers don't fare that much better than the table scraps.

Counting the appearances between combine invites (and even throwing in homegrowns, GAs, and first round picks) versus every other goalkeeper that could be drafted (again, leaving out Campos, Friedel, and others), it's only 53-47% in favor of goalkeepers who are receiving media attention. There are actually more combine washouts (supposedly the cream of the crop) than goalkeepers who are overlooked yet make it into the league (43-33).

In the first decade, MLS could simply rely on word of mouth for the best goalkeepers coming out of the college game. Now that more teams are vying for the best goalkeepers - and more are getting selected in the draft - teams can't expect the press or the combine to do their research for them.

The touted goalkeepers don't end up fairing that much better than the rest of the bunch. Dating back to 2003, the current combine invite has a median career game appearances of zero. Still, some teams are confident in just accessing the four to six goalkeepers invited to the combine.

So How Important Is the College Draft?

Incredibly, but that doesn't mean the press surrounding the draft is equally valuable. The college game isn't at the point where teams can just throw a dart at a wall and find a starting goalkeeper. 76% of combine invites get drafted yet only 29% of combine invites end up being a success within the league. Even worse, only 18% of prospects end up being a success for a given team, meaning teams are moving on too quickly moving on from their draft picks. 

+/- =  tm.succ - (prospects - tm.succ) - (lg.succ - tm.succ) ... essentially counting all the times a team got it right, with a penalty for losing a good goalkeeper

MLS's goalkeeping future is hard to predict. For teams trying to get the most out of their money, the emphasis should be on the academy to develop their goalkeepers. However, the majority of teams aren't as patient and resort to battling the rest of the league to find a promising goalkeeper in the draft. Perhaps we will see teams be more creative in how they bring in goalkeepers but that will likely be dependent on rule changes. Until then, it seems like the landscape isn't going to change and neither is the pipeline for American goalkeepers.

If teams aren't willing to craft their own goalkeeper, they have to do something to give themselves an advantage over their competitors. We know there is talent in the college game, it's just a matter of finding it early and not years after they graduate. As we enter 2017, teams are starting to separate themselves as to those who are content with listening to the noise, and those who know that finding a young goalkeeper starts before January.