MLS Goalkeeper Roundup - Week 2

If you're new to the site or don't know how to pronounce "GSAR", check out my goalkeeping stat, Goals Saved Above Replacement.

I switched from "review" to "roundup" to really spice things up. Here's the weekly installment to get you ready for the weekend. What goalkeepers are doing well? Which ones aren't?

Game-by-game stats here.

Nick Rimando still leads the pack. Bobby Shuttleworth holds second place and Chris Seitz (who will surely drop out of contention later in the season) falls to third. On the other end of things, David Ousted climbs out of last place with a positive performance while rookie John Berner (who was filling in for Colorado while Clint Irwin is injured) and Sean Johnson share the last two spots.

For the American supporters, they may be unsettled to see USMNT hopefuls Nick Rimando and Sean Johnson combine for a -1.61 GSAR this past week. As in they did really bad this past week. Lucky for you, here's a break down of their errors.

Nick Rimando vs. San Jose

The first goal is easy to miss Rimando's mistake. A great free kick into the mix and the ball ends up in the net. But watch Rimando's positioning:

I don't advise entering the crowd and Rimando wisely sits on his line. As it trickles to Wondo, Rimando reads the play wrong and (I think) doesn't realize Wondo is about to take a touch. If Rimando stays where he is, a simple kick save keeps the ball out. However, Rimando doesn't see the oncoming Earthquake and guesses wrong.

The third goal is a typical Goonies-esque conclusion. RSL have trouble clearing it out and the ball is lofted into the 18 for the umpteenth time. 5'10" Rimando goes up against 6'3" Alan Gordon...

Featured: Gross shirtless guy (top left)

It's a 50-50 challenge, not one I would call foul on Gordon for either. The picture is a little blurry, but as the ball drops in, Rimando only goes up with his right hand, opening his side to Gordon. Because of this and the lack of size, Rimando gets edged out and even twisted a little bit. If Rimando uses his right arm as a shield (literally like he was holding a shield) he will protect himself from getting moved out of the way and his left hand can attack the ball more naturally, hitting it across his body and back out. Instead...

Notice Rimando's twisting motion. Top left gross guy still present.

Rimando is spun by Gordon and Rimando's hand only gets a glance on the ball, hitting it downward, (aka the worst possible direction to hit the ball). The ball is slotted back post but if Rimando takes a better approach on the lofted ball, maybe RSL leave with three points.

Sean Johnson vs. Portland Timbers

Johnson really had a miserable game that he is looking to redeem this next weekend. The most obvious error was his whiff on coming out of the box around the 70th minute. (Highlights here, at 4:05) There were multiple times throughout the game when he struggled in the air or didn't hold a shot he could. At 5:30 in the video, Portland evens the score.

The ball isn't struck far from Johnson (notice how backwards he falls instead of diving out) but he doesn't hold the shot and the loose rebound is an easy put away. Johnson needs to hold this as it's clearly in his reach.

Other Notes

  • John Berner gets 'megged on a header. He needs to skip ahead with his eyes and see the shot coming sooner. (Young goalkeepers, don't make this mistake! You don't need to follow the ball the entire way in the air. Find where it is going to land and ready the shooter's body language.)
  • Zac MacMath is having a much better year but flighted balls are still a weak spot for him.
  • Julio Cesar made his first start for Toronto. I thought he reacted really slow on the loan goal scored on him.
  • Eric Kronberg is diving way too slow on this goal. Andy Gruenebaum, anyone?
  • It's still unclear if either Clint Irwin or Raul Fernandez will be ready to take their starting spots back. Both are dealing with nagging injuries.

Texas High School Playoff Statistics

I know this post isn't goalie-centric but with the state's high school playoffs around the corner, I thought it'd be interesting to dive into stats about a tournament that's more mad than March Madness.

Texas high school soccer is split into two classes, 5A and 4A, the latter encompassing a handful of 3A and lower class schools. At the end of this season, they'll readjust the districts and classes like they do every two years. This includes taking teams out of districts and into new ones as well as promoting and relegating [sic] based off of school attendance numbers. You can see the most recent alignments here: 5A all regions, 4A regions I and II, 4A regions III and IV.

Texas has organized a state tournament since 1983 through UIL, the University Interscholastic League. They've tweaked the process of qualifying for the playoffs over the years but currently the top four teams from each district qualify. I've tallied up the results from 2010 to the present to find out the most successful teams from across the state. I awarded points for playoff and district success.*

Top 30 Most Successful Texas High School Teams

From 2010-2013

1. Kilgore (4A) - 55
2. Waco University (4A) - 52.5
3. Wichita Falls Rider (4A) - 47.5
4. Boerne Champion (4A) - 46.5
5. Dallas Jesuit (5A) - 45
6. Mount Pleasant (4A) - 44.5
7. Houston Strake Jesuit (5A) - 44
7. Conroe The Woodlands (5A) - 44
9. Mission Sharyland (5A) - 42
10. La Joya Juarez-Lincoln (5/4A) - 41.5

11. El Paso Bel Air (5A) - 40.5
12. Friendswood (4A) - 40
13. Frisco Wakeland (4A) - 39.5
13. North Dallas (4A) - 39.5
15. Houston Lee (4A) - 39
15. Brownsville Lopez (5A) - 39
15. Pharr-Valley View (4A) - 39
18. Fort Bend Clements (5A) - 38.5
19. Pasadena Dobie (Houston) (5A) - 37.5
20. Humble Kingwood Park (4A) - 37
20. San Antonio Alamo Heights (4A) - 37
20. Waller (4A) - 37
20. Deer Park (5A) - 37

24. Georgetown (4/5A) - 36
24. Katy Morton Ranch (5A) - 36
24. Mesquite Poteet (4A) - 36
27. San Antonio Reagan (5A) - 35.5
28. Southlake Carroll (5A) - 35
28. Red Oak (4A) - 35
28. North Richland Hills Birdville (4A) - 35
28. Humble Kingwood (5A) - 35
28. Coppell (5A) - 35

* - Teams were awarded 1.5 points for each round they appeared in. For district, teams were awarded four for finishing first, three for second, two for third, and one for fourth place. Download the entire document here. It's a little messy after the first tab, heads up.

It was difficult putting 5A and 4A teams on the same playing field. For starters, the 4A playoffs have byes splattered throughout their playoffs, so a team who got to the third round could have as easily been knocked out in the first had they been slotted in another district. More teams make the 4A playoffs because of more districts and the talent level is typically thought to be a drop off from 5A.

To analyze the gap, I looked at the 44 instances where a school was moved between classes. In the sixteen times a school dropped to 4A, the average round progression between the two years raised from 0.83 to 2.28. Inversely, the average round progression for a school jumping to 5A dropped from 2.08 to 1.04. So based on this, I award every 5A team an additional one point every year. That's not to say every team in 5A is better than a 4A team. It's just to average out the results since 5A is in a tougher setup.

I looked at three stats to find some correlations between the regular and postseason success. The first stat is comparing one team's playoff success to next year's run. The table is split into two, 4A and 5A. The first column is the past round success (when they were knocked out, 1st round, or won the tournament, the final round) and the "avg" column is the average result of those team's playoff run the following year. It only has three years to look at but here are the results:

(The numbers are a little funky for a variety of reasons, one being promotion and relegation.) Some things to notice:

  • 5A schools have a harder time of continuing their success compared to 4A schools.
  • The sample size for late rounds is pretty small. The number on the far right is the average round success for that row and all the ones below.
  • A team that makes the playoffs (round 1) is more likely to return the next year than not. But every other round success is more unlikely to repeat their run.

The next stat is the same idea but with the district results.

Again, 5A has trouble maintain supremacy in their district. A district winner, on average finishes 2.39th in district the next year.

The last stat is how successful the district seeds are in playoffs.

The 4A schools finishing either first or second did better than their 5A equivalents. If the overall round success seems low, the playoffs are set up that first place schools will face each other in the third round. So by the fourth round, at least half of the district winners will be out, if not more.

Playoffs start a week from Tuesday. I'll update the information at the end of the playoffs but don't expect most of the numbers to move too much. StudentSports.com releases weekly rankings of both state and national high school teams, which contains some familiar names to this post.

Kevin Silva Interview

Kevin Silva is the starting goalkeeper for the US U17 national team. Kevin played in the Nike Friendlies this past December, a tournament that featured the U17 national teams from US, Portugal, Brazil, and England. Silva was awarded the Golden Glove for only giving up two goals in the tournament. I talked to Kevin about how he got into goalkeeping, what it's like being at Bradenton, and what it was like to be on the field against a team who didn't move for the last six minutes of the game.

How'd you introduced into playing goalkeeper?

It was probably my dad. Growing up, he would play in this league and I would usually see him in goal. I always had an interest but I didn't play goalkeeper in little leagues. It wasn't until after a little while I tried it and I started enjoying it a lot. And I saw that I had a little bit of natural talent for it.

And how'd you get introduced to the US youth programs?

They saw me play on my club team, PDA, and they told me about the academy. They talked about the opportunities that would be coming along because how the national team is more involved than the academy league. So they brought me in and I tried out. They liked me a lot. The ID camp in Cali, which was two and half summers ago is where it all started for me.

You started residency this last fall. What were some of the aspects that played into your decision to go down to Florida?

Just knowing how training would be. I really fell in love with the fact that we would train every day with good competition and actually work hard. I could really start to see myself improve. I talked to some guys who were here last cycle and that really helped make the decision about it too. My parents were really concerned about the school and once we found out I was going to a good school and getting a good education that eased my parents into it.

What are some differences, either major or minor, between your club back home and Bradenton?

Training every day and how the players down here treat the training sessions. Back in PDA, we had very good coaches and very good sessions, but sometimes the players don't feel like playing and the training level wasn't so high. I'm not complaining, PDA is a great place, but I know I've improved a lot down in Bradenton because of the competition level. We're all fighting for a spot and we all understand what it means to train like young pros every day.

This might not have been on your mind at all but you weren't able to play for a high school team. Was there any regret there?

I don't really regret it. [Playing for a high school] seemed like a really cool experience but when you look back on it, not that many players get to say that they played in the Nike Friendlies and against other countries. That was an experience that I always thought of growing up. But when the national team came along, there wasn't much regret.

What's something about residency that someone from the outside wouldn't know of?

They work on every aspect of your game from mental to nutrition. It's not all about going to school and playing soccer. It's also about being mentally tough and eating right. Every day they're creating a different environment for you to adapt to.

Is there anything you would change about it?

*thinks* I wouldn't really say because they give us every opportunity to get better. It's all in front of us and it's all a matter if we want it or not.

You talked about the Nike Friendlies, the last game against Brazil. I'm sure you remember this but they just stood on the field for the last six minutes to end the game. [Video here] Right at the whistle y'all rushed to celebrate winning the tournament but was there any conversation at all about it? Either between yourselves, coaches, or with the other team?

[Coach] Richie [Williams] said after the game that he was really shocked what they did because it's really… not them. Brazil wouldn't really do that. They were really mad and didn't believe the second red card was a red card but obviously it was. They didn't like that we had outplayed them and they had enough. The coach even yelled from the sidelines to tell them to stop playing and just stand there. But Richie didn't really say much about it. He said don't juggle the ball and to just hold the ball and be professional about it.

I know you're still a little ways from this decision but is there any sort of pressure on you now about college? Do you feel there's pressure on you to go play abroad? Are you leaning one way or the other?

It's tough because the age I'm now. My mom wants me to do college but my dad wants me to overseas. As of right now, if an opportunity overseas opens up I'm obviously taking that advantage but if something doesn't work out overseas, I’ll look back at college and play there.

Last question, what's the difference in your game now versus two years ago? So from 14 to 16, how are you different as a goalkeeper?

Physically, I've gotten a lot stronger and taller. Also, maturing has helped a lot. At 14, I wasn't very brave coming off my line, command my box, or communicate as much as I do now.

MLS Goalkeeper Review - Week 1

If you're new to the site or don't know how to pronounce "GSAR", check out my goalkeeping stat, Goals Saved Above Replacement.

One week through MLS and we saw many high and lows. Everyone was excited about the number of goals on the opening weekend but goals come from goal scoring opportunities and goal scoring opportunities lay the foundation for saves. And who doesn't like a good save? Chumps, that's who.

MLS actually did a decent job of picking the Save of the Week candidates, something they didn't do last year. On principle, I don't vote for a penalty save unless it was really outstanding for some reason. So I went with Penedo's flick of the wrist. I thought that was the most display of skill, even if the other saves (specifically Rimando's and Johnson's) had a higher impact on their GSARs.

If you're new to the site, I'm continuing my GSAR campaign for MLS goalkeepers this season. I almost completed the project last year but didn't quite make it. (You can click the 2013 tab to see the mostly completed project.) Below are everyone's GSAR. Rimando, Shuttleworth, and Seitz all had great days despite giving up a total of six goals between them and Seattle's Stefan Frei had a negative GSAR even though he had a shutout.

In an attempt to be more transparent for 2014 (my new year's ghost-inspired resolution), here are the game-by-game results for the first week of the MLS season. Going left to right by columns are

  • date - What the date was.
  • gk - Who the relevant goalkeeper is.
  • versus - Who are they playing?
  • GAs - How many goals allowed? This might increase as the game goes on.
  • shotlocal - Shot location based off of American Soccer Analysis's grid although I split the second grid in half. 2A is in front of the penalty spot, 2B is behind it. (For penalty kicks I just listed it as 2A.) I did this because I noticed a lot of shots come from the second grid and wanted to be more precise.
  • speed - 0-5 rating on how fast it was. This is a shot in the dark to see if it'll show some results. It might turn out to be nothing.
  • balllocal - If you keep scoring to the right in the spreadsheet you'll see a goal lined in x's with six grids inside. This is where the shot enters, facing the goal. The sixth grid is the top right corner (if facing front of goal).
  • situation - Any relevant information on the play.
  • defense (0-2) - 0-2 rating on the defense on the play. 2 is great, 1 is average, 0 is bad.
  • GSAR - Goals Saved Above Replacement, which you should know about now.

Five Plays From Week 1

5. I was really impressed with Shuttleworth this past week. After an up and down season in 2013, where New England sat Shuttleworth for Matt Reis late in the season, New England brings in Brad Knighton to compete for the spot. Shuttleworth gets the nod for opening day and his first three encounters with the ball all result in goals. Yet he finishes the game very strong (even though another goal was scored) with a +.73 GSAR on the day, including a 1v1 stop and this nice upper ninety save.

4. Sean Johnson made the highlight reel with his nice free kick save (+0.59 GSAR) but still ends up negative on the day because of the second and third goal he conceded against Chivas. On the second goal, his hands jump up above his head when the shot slips in past his heels. This is not ideal. He needs to react to the play and not guess. The third goal is more criminal when the ball slip past his hip. It's hit with such power, it's easy to let Johnson off the hook but this is definitely his to claim.

3. Sporting Kansas City gives up a goal in stoppage time when Eric Kronberg plows through Matt Besler. It's a fine line between trusting your defenders and being scared but Kronberg is too aggressive here. Even after the collision he takes way too long to get up and can't get to the ball because of this.

2. After having a quiet day and with his team up 4-0, David Ousted rushes out for a ball that he thinks he can catch but doesn't see Bradley Wright-Phillips until it's too late. I'm alright with his decision to come out, but this is a textbook punch situation.

1. In the first half of the game, Jaime Penedo makes a diving save that I think is a little overplayed. There's no shuffle when he has the time to do so. I think he could hold on to this if he moves his feet just a little bit. But like I said before, I really like this save by Penedo. It's quick, and one he shouldn't give up, but it's a hard, rising shot from a close angle. Honestly, this save is much tougher than the diving one.

 

Notes

  • Multiple keepers struggled in the air last weekend. We saw Kronberg's collision but Seattle's Stefan Frei didn't look confident here and Tally Hall had a really bad miss on a throw-in that should have resulted in a goal if not for the smart defense to guard the line. This may be an issue with these keepers for the season.
  • Chris Seitz did well coming off the bench for FC Dallas when Raul Fernandez injured. I said it all last season that Seitz was the best backup in the league and I still think he could start at a number of teams now. However, he almost gave up a bad goal with this five hole slip up. Somehow he redeems himself on the play by getting a paw on the rebound.
  • Crew goalkeeper Steve Clark (who was traded by Seattle) may have a quiet season in Columbus. +0.05 GSAR in a shutout.
  • Julio Cesar should start for Toronto on Saturday against Seattle. I'm looking forward to seeing what the World Cup vet can do.
  • Matt Reis is hiding outide in Los Angeles.
  • Donovan Ricketts showed us how to not defender a header. Goodness gracious...