We are getting closer to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a tournament that will be unprecedented in many ways. There will be more teams, more games, and the action will be spread across three countries and several different time zones.
The tournament bracket is, as a consequence, difficult to predict, and we will have no fewer than 32 teams in the knockout round, which is double the usual number. It’s not easy to predict how everything will pan out.
We have tried, however, to parse out a likely route through the group stages and come up with predictions for all 32 teams to make it. Of course, plenty of fans might disagree and will be placing their own bets and trades on online prediction markets for the tournament.
Yet, we have calculated how the knockout rounds might pan out based on form, and it looks like these 16 matches below:
South Korea vs Switzerland
It’s a pity that our model has pitted these two teams against each other in the Last 32, as both are capable of going deeper in the tournament. Switzerland, in particular, looks like a team capable of mixing it up with the contenders.
Germany vs Scotland
Expect this to be one of the best atmospheres in the World Cup. Germany will be tipped to succeed, but there is much to love about this Scotland team, which will no doubt have the backing of the most vocal fans in the tournament.
Netherlands vs Morocco
This is an interesting one, and we think it could be one of the major scalps of the tournament as Morocco has all the goods to vanquish the Netherlands. Indeed, we’d argue that it won’t even be a major surprise should the North Africans get through.
Brazil vs Japan
A nice matchup here, pitting the perennial World Cup contenders against a team that tends to go under the radar before every tournament. Japan will be a tricky opponent for a Brazil team that is under pressure to get things right.
France vs Sweden
This is definitely one to keep an eye on for an upset. On paper, France will be the heavy favorite, yet there is a lot to like about this Sweden team. Much might depend on the return to fitness of Alexander Isak.
Ecuador vs Senegal
Probably not the glamour tie of the round, but it nevertheless features two astute teams, with Senegal, in particular, keen to prove a point after the much-publicized debacle in the African Cup of Nations.
Mexico vs Saudi Arabia
A decent draw for Mexico, predicated on the hope that the co-hosts top their group. The Saudi teams have sprung surprises over the years, though.
England vs Côte d’Ivoire
A tough game for one of the pre-tournament favorites, England. Coach Thomas Tuchel will be hoping that his tactics are spot on against a team that many will fancy to spring a surprise.
USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
USMNT fans will probably fancy their chances here, but Bosnia was phenomenal in coming through UEFA Playoffs, vanquishing Italy in the process.
Belgium vs South Africa
There is an air of uncertainty around Belgium at the moment, with a feeling that the nation missed its chance to capitalize on its golden generation. Still, the Belgians will be likely heavy favorites against a South African team that will be viewed as one of the weakest in the knockout rounds.
Colombia vs Croatia
A fascinating tie between two teams with a rich World Cup heritage. Croatia remains a team in transition from its own golden era, but it still retains some of the most experienced players in world soccer.
Spain vs Algeria
At the time of writing, Spain is the favorite for the World Cup, and we are certain that nobody will want to face the Spanish at any point of the tournament. Algeria will have an uphill task here, but certainly won’t be there to make up the numbers.
Canada vs Egypt
Canada is predicted to make the knockout rounds, thanks in part to a generous draw in the group stages as co-hosts. Alas, it’s our view that coming up against Egypt will be too much for the Canadians.
Argentina vs Uruguay
An intriguing heavyweight tie between the current world champion and the nation that won the first World Cup back in 1930. Argentina will be back to win, but this could be a bruiser between the South American neighbors.
Portugal vs Paraguay
Portugal head coach should have one remit this summer: focus on the team and not the circus around Cristiano Ronaldo’s (probable) final tournament. That’s not an easy task, but the Portuguese ooze class, and should have enough to get past Paraguay.
Türkiye vs New Zealand
Hmmm. We would have Iran against Turkey in this matchup but changed course after the Iranians’ likely withdrawal from the tournament due to the conflict in the Middle East. Still, whether its Iran or New Zealand, we still fancy a very, very good Turkey team to get through.