The last time Italy played in a World Cup, they won it. That was 2006. They attended 2010 and 2014, accomplishing nothing of note in either, and then failed to show up to the next 2 altogether.
A 4-time world champion was reduced to watching from home while nations with a fraction of their football history competed. It happened in 2018. It happened again in 2022. And now, with the 2026 tournament approaching, Italy finds itself in the playoffs for a third straight qualifying cycle, staring at the same trapdoor that swallowed them twice before. The situation is familiar in a way that should unsettle anyone wearing an Azzurri shirt.
How Italy Ended Up Here Again
Italy finished second in Group I of UEFA’s qualifying round, behind Norway. They collected 18 points across the group, winning 6 matches but losing twice to Norway. That second-place finish meant they could not book a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Instead, they were funneled into the playoff bracket, a place that has brought them nothing but misery in recent years.
In 2017, Sweden knocked Italy out over 2 legs in the playoff round, and the Azzurri missed the 2018 World Cup in Russia. It was the first time since 1958 that Italy had failed to qualify. Then, in March 2022, North Macedonia beat them 1-0 in the playoff semi-finals. A single goal from a country with a population smaller than Rome kept the reigning European champions out of Qatar. The defeats were different in character but identical in outcome.
The Playoff Draw and What It Means
Italy will host Northern Ireland on March 26 in a single-legged semi-final at Bergamo. There is no return leg, no aggregate scoreline to fall back on. One match, one result. If Italy wins, they travel away to face the winner of Wales versus Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 31 in the playoff final.
The single-leg format is worth paying attention to. It compresses the margin for error into 90 minutes. North Macedonia proved in 2022 that anything can happen in that kind of setup. Italy was at home that night too, and it did not save them.
Gattuso’s Preparations and Squad Building
Gennaro Gattuso took over the national team with this playoff as his first real test. Reports indicate he has been traveling to meet with key players ahead of the March window. He and Gianluigi Buffon, now serving in a team ambassador or advisory role, reportedly sat down with Marco Verratti to discuss a potential return to the squad.
Gattuso has also visited Gianluigi Donnarumma and Sandro Tonali in England, as well as Mateo Retegui in Saudi Arabia.
These meetings suggest that Gattuso is treating the playoffs with the urgency they deserve. The squad he selects will tell us a lot about his priorities, specifically how much he values veteran presence against Northern Ireland versus younger legs who might carry the team through both rounds if they advance.
Where the Betting Lines Sit for Italy’s Playoff Path
Sportsbooks have priced Italy as heavy favorites to beat Northern Ireland, with ESPN listing them at -320 on the moneyline. DraftKings and BetMGM both offer outright World Cup odds of +3000 and +3300 on Italy to win the tournament, placing them well behind favorites like France, Argentina, and England. Those numbers tell you bookmakers expect Italy to qualify, but see them as long shots beyond that.
Playoff Path A odds sit at 1.53 for Italy to advance through both rounds. Wales and Bosnia and Herzegovina remain as possible final opponents if Italy gets past Bergamo.
What Happens If They Get Through
Should Italy qualify, they land in Group B at the 2026 World Cup alongside Canada, Qatar, and Switzerland. On paper, that group looks manageable for a team of Italy’s pedigree, though pedigree has proven to be an unreliable predictor in their case lately.
The +3000 and +3300 odds to win the tournament outright show where the market thinks Italy sits among the contenders. They are not considered serious threats to win the whole thing. Getting there would be the first real achievement for this generation.
Why Northern Ireland Should Not Be Underestimated
Northern Ireland earned their playoff spot through the Nations League after finishing third in Group A behind Germany and Slovakia. Their squad is made up almost entirely of lower-division English league players, with Conor Bradley at Liverpool being the notable exception. On paper, they have no business being in this conversation. But Michael O’Neill has called this group young and fearless, and that description should sound familiar.
The history between these two teams adds an uncomfortable footnote. Northern Ireland beat Italy 2-1 in Belfast in January 1958 and knocked them out of that year’s World Cup. Their most recent meeting was a 0-0 draw in Belfast in November 2021, a result that helped push Italy into the very playoff round where North Macedonia eliminated them.
Northern Ireland has not qualified for a World Cup since 1986, and they have nothing to lose. Italy, on the other hand, has everything to lose, and recent history says that imbalance tends to work against it.
The Real Question
Can Italy miss the World Cup for a third straight time? Yes. The probability is low according to betting markets, but the probability was low the last 2 times as well. Italy were the favorites against Sweden in 2017. They were heavy favorites against North Macedonia in 2022. Favorites lose in football. It happens with enough regularity that the word “favorite” comes with an asterisk in knockout rounds.
Northern Ireland is a significant underdog at +900. They are not expected to win. But expectation and outcome have parted ways for Italy before, and the Azzurri know better than anyone that qualification is earned on the pitch, not on a betting slip. March 26 in Bergamo will answer the question one way or the other.